The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is intensifying challenges in the delivery of humanitarian medical supplies to Africa, compounding an already fragile situation exacerbated by funding reductions and logistical hurdles. Humanitarian organizations expressed concern that continued disruptions could severely impact treatment availability across the continent.

Medical non-governmental organization Alima, which operates in 13 African countries, warned that its medicine stocks could be exhausted by the end of April if current conditions persist. Rodrigue Alitanou, Alima’s director of operations, indicated that rising fuel costs and transport complications linked to the conflict have driven up import expenses, directly affecting the capacity to provide care for vulnerable populations. “An extra $2,000 in costs means 200 fewer children suffering from malnutrition will receive treatment,” Alitanou said, highlighting deteriorating situations in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and elsewhere.

Africa depends heavily on imported pharmaceuticals, sourcing over 70% of its medicines and more than 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients from overseas. The Middle East — serving as a crucial transit point between Asia, the world’s primary producer of medicines, and Africa — has become a bottleneck for supply chains due to conflict-related disruptions. Several humanitarian supply hubs based in Dubai’s free zone have experienced operational setbacks, interfering with the timely dispatch of aid.

Damien Dubois, purchasing and inventory officer at MSF Supply, part of Doctors Without Borders, detailed the logistical impacts. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced shipments to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to a month to delivery times and increasing costs. The World Health Organization’s logistics hub in Dubai, which services over 150 countries, also had to cancel certain shipments following airspace restrictions at the onset of hostilities.

While the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria reported observing shipment delays and cost increases, it has not yet identified specific drug shortages. Experts caution, however, that these disruptions exacerbate preexisting vulnerabilities. Anne Senequier, co-director of the Global Health Observatory at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations, emphasized that although medicine shortages are not widespread at present, supply chain strains could lead to shortages in particularly vulnerable regions.

Following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, humanitarian agencies remain cautious. Strikes persisted in the Gulf after the truce, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disturbances. Alitanou described the ceasefire as “a first step” but warned that ongoing conflict in the Gulf states continues to undermine relief operations. MSF Supply’s shipments coordinator, Agathe Lamouret, warned the situation “will remain very unstable,” given the uncertainty surrounding the truce’s duration and enforcement.

World Health Organization spokesperson Christian Lindmeier indicated that it could take several weeks to fully recover from the disruption to supply chains caused by the closure of key transport routes. Ines Alaoui, head of international health policy at Coalition Plus, noted Africa’s reliance on just-in-time supply models without extensive stockpiling heightens its vulnerability to geopolitical shocks. Organizations part of Coalition Plus have already faced shortages of preventative medicines and antiretrovirals following U.S. aid cuts.

Alaoui expressed concern that the compounded crisis risks undermining HIV treatment continuity on the continent. Senequier highlighted the potential for some vulnerable populations to turn to counterfeit medications amid supply shortages, posing additional health risks. The overall scenario underscores the fragile nature of Africa’s humanitarian medical supply lines and the broader repercussions of regional conflicts on global health programs.