A series of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed large, well-timed bets on the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire ahead of its announcement Tuesday, resulting in substantial profits for these users. The bets occurred despite heightened tensions and no apparent immediate indication that a ceasefire was forthcoming.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning via social media, stating that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran complied with his demand to open the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz by an 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Earlier in the day, Trump’s rhetoric had escalated, suggesting a potential conflict rather than diplomatic progress.

Blockchain data accessible through Polymarket’s platform shows that at least 50 new accounts—referred to as wallets—placed significant wagers predicting a ceasefire before Trump publicly announced the agreement via a Truth Social post at approximately 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Analysis indicates these were the first wagers recorded for these wallets on the platform.

One wallet, reportedly created around 10 a.m. Tuesday, invested about $72,000 on “Yes” bets, indicative of a belief in a ceasefire, at an average price representing an 8.8% probability. This account later cashed out with an estimated profit of $200,000. Another account, established the day prior, saw winnings of roughly $125,500 on the same outcome. A third wallet, created mere minutes before Trump’s ceasefire announcement, placed nearly $32,000 in bets at a higher price point—about 33.7% probability—and is estimated to have gained approximately $48,500.

The elevated prices for “Yes” bets around that time may reflect external diplomatic maneuvers, including Pakistan’s reported efforts to persuade Trump to extend his deadline for compliance by Iran. Observers have speculated that some bettors may have anticipated a de-escalation based on Trump’s track record during his second term of issuing bold threats without following through, a pattern informally known as “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO).

Because of the nature of Polymarket’s proxy smart contract wallets, which allow a single user to create multiple accounts, blockchain data cannot conclusively identify the individuals behind these wagers. Only Polymarket retains the internal information necessary to determine whether the accounts represented genuinely new participants or existing users employing additional wallets.

The sequence of sizable bets placed shortly before the ceasefire announcement has prompted scrutiny regarding how these new accounts seemingly accessed precise information or insight before official news was made public.