A recent poll indicates significant losses ahead for several cabinet ministers and the Labour Party in the next general election, with notable gains for the Reform UK and Green parties. The survey, conducted by More in Common and polling over 15,000 Britons, projects a major reshuffling in parliamentary representation, underscoring the shifting political landscape ahead of critical elections scheduled for May 7.

According to the poll, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is poised to become the largest party with 324 seats, just two short of an outright majority. The party is predicted to unseat prominent Labour figures including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, and Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds. Business Secretary Peter Kyle, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, and Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones are forecast to lose their seats to Greens candidates, while Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner is also expected to be defeated by Reform UK. In all, 16 out of 22 cabinet ministers could lose their seats, with 12 defeated by Reform UK, three by the Green Party, and one by an independent.

The Labour Party is facing what the poll describes as an electoral catastrophe, potentially losing around 310 seats from its 2024 total and being reduced to 101 MPs. The party is reportedly losing support on both its left and right flanks, with Reform UK and the Greens making significant inroads into its traditional voter base. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, could quadruple its representation, increasing from five to 22 seats, reinforcing its position as a rising force in British politics. The Liberal Democrats are expected to lose around 10 seats, leaving them with 62, while the Conservative Party under Kemi Badenoch is projected to lose 40 seats, reducing their count to approximately 81. Several Tory frontbenchers including Badenoch, Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride, and Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly are also predicted to lose their seats.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has emphasized the growing challenge to Labour in its northern strongholds ahead of upcoming council elections, describing a potential defeat for Sir Keir Starmer as a “ballot box humiliation” that could end his tenure as party leader and Prime Minister.

Amid these predictions, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been working to reassure voters that the government is actively addressing economic concerns, particularly those arising from ongoing international tensions such as the conflict in Iran. The May 7 elections are widely viewed as crucial in determining the balance of power in British politics, with the poll signaling a possible realignment that would reshape the current political order.