The United States faces increasing challenges to its longstanding air superiority as China accelerates the development and production of advanced fighter aircraft. Since the early 2000s, the U.S. military has maintained a dominant position in the skies, leveraging speed, stealth, and sensor technology to achieve air superiority in recent conflicts. However, this advantage is now under threat as China moves toward deploying sixth-generation stealth fighters ahead of the U.S.

China’s J-36 and J-50 aircraft first took flight in 2024, marking a significant advancement in their air capabilities, while the U.S. F-47 is not expected to conduct its initial flight until 2028 and may not enter operational service until the mid-2030s. This lag, combined with a rapid expansion of China’s aircraft production capacity, has raised concerns about the future balance of air power. China’s defense spending has increased thirteenfold over the past three decades, fueling a military buildup aimed at asserting control over the Indo-Pacific region, including potential conflicts involving Taiwan.

Experts note that U.S. military aviation capabilities have weakened over time due to a combination of policy decisions, budget constraints, and industrial consolidation. The fighter fleet has shrunk dramatically from 4,100 aircraft in 1990 to around 2,000 in 2024, with only about 1,300 deemed combat-ready—a record low. Similarly, key platforms such as the KC-135 tanker fleet are aging, with aircraft surpassing 60 years of service. The average age of Air Force fighters has risen to over 27 years, and operational readiness rates hover near 50 percent, hampered by shortages of spare parts and a diminished industrial base.

Challenges extend beyond equipment as a human capital crisis affects pilot training and retention. Flight hours for new aviators have declined from more than 200 annually a decade ago to around 150 today, reflecting efforts to accelerate deployment but limiting valuable experience. Midcareer pilots often leave for civilian careers, exacerbating a shortage of experienced personnel.

In response, lawmakers advocate for a national mobilization to reinvigorate U.S. air power. Key recommendations include authorizing multiyear procurement contracts for fighters such as the F-35 and F-15EX to stabilize production lines and encourage industrial investment. They also call for expanding the fighter fleet by 50 percent by 2035 to ensure readiness for potential great-power conflicts. Additionally, improving support for aviators through enhanced incentives, career flexibility, and quality-of-life programs is seen as critical to retaining skilled personnel.

Observers warn that ceding air superiority to China would represent a significant strategic setback, with implications for U.S. interests and allies. Advocates encourage bipartisan commitment to strengthening America’s defense industrial base and talent pool to maintain control of the skies amid growing global competition.