The Kapıköy border crossing in eastern Turkey, a key mountain passage linking Iran to the west, has undergone significant changes in recent weeks following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under US and Israeli strikes. A black flag, reportedly raised by the Iranian regime a month ago, now flies at the previously bustling point, which once served as a popular route for Iranian daytrippers seeking shopping opportunities in Van, Turkey, or its discreet nightlife.

Individuals crossing into Turkey describe a deteriorating situation within Iran. Amir, a 33-year-old foreign exchange and cryptocurrency trader from Tehran, who asked that his name be changed for safety, cited relentless bombardments of nearby cities, industrial areas, and military bases as his reason for leaving. He also pointed to an internet blackout imposed by the regime over the past month, which has eliminated his livelihood. Amir expressed support for the US and Israeli campaign, stating, "We must want to get rid of the regime." Similarly, a pharmacologist from Tehran, en route to visit her daughters in Europe, described widespread anxiety in Iran and voiced a desire for regime change, believing "most people like Trump because he might change the regime."

Despite these personal accounts of upheaval, the overall scale of emigration from Iran to Turkey remains complex. The UN refugee agency reported approximately 64,000 Iranian arrivals in Turkey between March 3 and March 30, but also noted that more than 48,000 individuals returned to Iran during the same period. Turkey has prepared for potential mass displacement, establishing a buffer zone and tent cities with a capacity for up to 90,000 people, though these facilities have not yet been utilized. Four army and security service checkpoints are now in place along the route from the border to Van.

Salvador Gutiérrez, chief of mission in Iran for the International Organization for Migration (IOM), indicated that while some movement is occurring, it is largely internal, with people relocating to Iran's northern provinces near the Caspian Sea. Gutiérrez also noted that many residents have recently begun returning to Tehran and other cities, and some state-affiliated corporations central to the Iranian economy have reportedly instructed employees to resume work. He suggested that many Iranians with savings or family support are currently observing developments before deciding on their next steps.