The ongoing oil crisis in the Middle East is set to impact summer holiday costs and global aviation, with potential surcharges for package trips and concerns about jet fuel supplies. The situation is largely attributed to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for a significant portion of the world's oil.

Holidaymakers booking package tours could face additional charges of up to 8% of their trip's total cost due to unforeseen price increases, such as fuel or tax hikes, even after their purchase. Under current travel regulations, companies can impose these surcharges without offering a free cancellation if the increase remains within the 8% limit. If the surcharge exceeds this threshold, firms are legally required to offer an alternative holiday or a full refund. While industry sources indicate such surcharges are uncommon, they are permissible within terms and conditions, and the sector anticipates price rises in the coming months.

Global oil prices have surged following the blockade and military actions involving the United States and Israel. Jet fuel costs, in particular, have seen a substantial increase, reportedly rising from approximately $742 per metric tonne a year ago to around $1,710 currently. Analysts suggest this sharp rise is a factor in approximately one in twenty flights being cancelled worldwide.

The United Kingdom, which sources roughly 38% of its jet fuel from the Middle East, is closely monitoring supply lines. Recent reports indicated that the final known shipment of jet fuel from the region was expected to reach the UK this week. However, government sources have asserted there is no immediate threat to national fuel supplies. Airlines UK, a trade body, stated that its members are not currently experiencing disruptions but are actively engaging with suppliers and the government to monitor the situation. Despite reassurances, some analysts caution that sustained restrictions on supplies could begin to strain the UK aviation sector in the weeks ahead. Although the UK can source jet fuel from other regions like the Netherlands and the US, global events can still lead to widespread price increases.

Beyond the aviation industry, the broader energy crisis is affecting consumers more widely. The cost of filling a 55-litre family car with diesel has surpassed £100 for the first time in over three years, with average prices reaching 182.8p per litre recently, an increase of 40p since the start of the conflict involving Iran, according to the RAC. While travel industry insiders have refrained from speculating on potential flight cancellations during the busy summer holiday season, analysts continue to warn of possible jet fuel shortages should the Strait of Hormuz blockade persist.