Mayor Mamdani has announced plans to reduce the population in city jails, a move officials attribute to a rise in inmate numbers, a shortage of correction officers, and deteriorating facility conditions. The initiative is also linked to the city's ongoing efforts to close the Rikers Island correctional complex.

Opponents of the plan, however, voice strong concerns, suggesting that such population reductions have historically coincided with significant increases in crime. Critics point to the 2019 state bail reform, which they contend led to the release of nearly 2,000 individuals from city jails. According to these critics, crime rates subsequently increased by 20% within two and a half months, by March 2020, following decades of decline. A month later, in April 2020, approximately 2,000 more inmates were released from Rikers due to concerns over COVID-19. By the end of 2020, data cited by critics indicate that murders had risen 47%, burglaries were up 42%, and shootings had doubled compared to the previous year. It reportedly took over five years for jail populations to rebound, with crime rates stabilizing at 15-20% higher than pre-bail reform levels.

Critics argue that the current jail population presents an even greater public safety concern. City jails presently house 5,645 inmates awaiting trial. Of these, 95% are charged with felonies. Further breakdown of this population by opponents shows that 1,436 individuals, or 25%, are charged with murder, while another 2,602, or 46%, face charges for violent felony offenses such as robbery, assault, and attempted murder. This means approximately 71% of those held on bail are charged with murder or a violent felony.

Additionally, 1,351 inmates, making up 24%, are charged with "nonviolent" felony offenses, including grand larceny and commercial burglary. Under current New York law, bail can typically only be set for these charges under specific "unusual circumstances," such as committing a crime while on probation or parole, having multiple prior felony convictions, or causing harm while released on a pending charge for a prior offense. Another 271 defendants are held on bail for misdemeanors, often due to having multiple open cases. Opponents emphasize that the fact judges have set bail for these individuals, even with justice reforms in place, underscores the serious nature of their charges.

The city's long-term plan aims to close Rikers Island and consolidate up to 4,400 inmates into new borough-based jail facilities. Critics argue that pressure to achieve this goal will lead to further inmate releases, potentially increasing crime.

Concerns are also raised regarding the financial aspect of inmate housing. While the city reports annual costs of $330,000 to $550,000 per inmate in NYC jails, critics compare this to an average of $115,000 in New York state prisons, $82,000 in non-NYC county jails, a national median of $40,000, and federal costs of about $60,000. Opponents suggest that instead of investigating these disparities or exploring alternative housing arrangements in state facilities, the city is opting for releases.