Arab Gulf states are expressing growing unease with the direction of U.S. policy toward Iran under President Donald Trump, as tensions in the region escalate amid looming threats of military action. While countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are reportedly favoring a de-escalation plan, there remains a faction within the Gulf that appears to support Trump’s more aggressive stance aimed at debilitating Iran’s capabilities.

Efforts to broker a ceasefire gained traction recently with what has been referred to as the “Islamabad Accord,” a proposal reportedly developed with mediation by Pakistan and supported by Egypt, Turkey, and China. The plan envisions an initial cessation of hostilities lasting between 15 and 45 days, coupled with the immediate reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The subsequent phase could include direct negotiations in Islamabad addressing nuclear regulations, sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and a permanent resolution to the conflict.

Oman has played a significant role in diplomatic engagements, holding talks with Iranian officials to agree on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Reports suggest Tehran may have consented to relinquish its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, though this has not been officially confirmed. These diplomatic efforts intensified just prior to President Trump’s ultimatum demanding Iran agree to terms or face severe military consequences.

Despite these efforts, Qatar has reportedly declined a central role in mediating between Washington and Tehran. According to U.S. officials, Doha expressed reluctance to lead peace talks, a stance attributed to concerns over ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting its territory and infrastructure, which disrupted a significant portion of its liquefied natural gas production. This cautious approach is reflective of broader frustration within the Gulf, where perceptions are growing that Trump’s policies prioritize Israeli security interests over regional stability and the safety of Gulf states.

Long-standing reliance on American military protection is coming under scrutiny. Gulf leaders recall previous challenges to the alliance, including a major 2019 missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities, attributed to Iran-backed Houthi forces, which the U.S. largely did not retaliate against at the time. The return of Trump to the presidency has further complicated relations, with some Gulf officials viewing U.S. strategy as heavily influenced by Israeli priorities rather than Gulf concerns.

Analysts note that Gulf states are increasingly reevaluating their strategic partnerships, exploring deeper ties with China, Russia, and other global powers as a hedge against potential instability. While breaking the alliance with the U.S. is not anticipated, diversifying security and economic relationships is becoming a clear priority. Questions loom over whether promised Gulf investments in the United States, touted by Trump during his recent regional visit, will materialize amid the financial strains imposed by the ongoing conflict.

Many Gulf officials remain wary of escalating military confrontation, particularly a possible U.S. ground invasion of Iran, which would risk drawing their countries further into a conflict they sought to avoid. Such an escalation is feared to provoke Iranian retaliation against critical Gulf infrastructure, including energy and water desalination facilities, which the U.S. may be unable to safeguard effectively.

The overall sentiment among Gulf states reflects a growing skepticism about Washington’s handling of the crisis. Even as some regional governments maintain official support for continued cooperation with the U.S., public opinion is shifting, with many Gulf citizens expressing opposition to prolonged conflict. The prospect of a destructive conflict with Iran without addressing Gulf interests could leave the region facing prolonged instability.

Observers highlight that the outcome of upcoming U.S. midterm elections may influence future American engagement in the region, adding further uncertainty to Gulf states’ calculus. For now, Gulf leaders appear resolute in seeking alternatives to navigate the complex and volatile dynamics wrought by the evolving U.S.-Iran conflict.