Rupert Lowe, the independent Member of Parliament for Great Yarmouth, is emerging as a significant figure in the upcoming Makerfield by-election, potentially influencing its outcome and reshaping local political dynamics. Lowe, a former chairman of Southampton FC, leads the right-wing party Restore Britain and appears poised to challenge Reform UK’s hold on the electorate in the contest scheduled for June 18.

Lowe’s involvement in the by-election is partly driven by personal and political grievances against Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK. Previously a member of Reform UK, Lowe was expelled after allegations surfaced that he made physical threats toward the party’s then-chairman, Zia Yusuf. Although no charges were filed, the incident left Lowe determined to thwart Farage’s political ambitions. His efforts to disrupt Reform UK’s support base have gained increased attention in recent months.

Restore Britain promotes a hardline nationalist agenda, advocating a return to a vision of Britain less influenced by multiculturalism and immigration. Reports describe the party as pushing for mass deportations and a jingoistic nationalism centered on traditional English identity. These policies have attracted criticism for being impractical and divisive, yet they have resonated with a segment of the electorate in certain areas.

The party has seen some electoral success in local government, notably gaining ten council seats through its Great Yarmouth First affiliate, which prevented Reform UK from securing an outright majority in Norfolk. This momentum suggests Restore Britain could play a spoiler role in Makerfield, drawing crucial votes from Reform supporters.

Recent polling indicates Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate for Makerfield, leads with around 43% support. He is followed closely by Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon, who has encountered his own controversies, polling at approximately 40%. Restore Britain’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, a local businesswoman, is currently polling at around 7%, with some polls suggesting this share could rise to 17%. Analysts suggest that most of Restore Britain’s voters would otherwise back Reform UK, potentially splitting the right-wing vote and improving Burnham’s chances.

Political commentators, including polling expert Sir John Curtice, have observed that Restore Britain’s presence complicates UK right-of-center politics, potentially benefiting Labour by dividing Reform UK’s support. The situation raises questions about the prospects of a united opposition on the right, with a working pact between Reform UK and the Conservative Party seeming unlikely in the near term.

Lowe has garnered attention beyond traditional political circles, reportedly receiving endorsement from high-profile figures such as Elon Musk, who has retweeted Lowe on social media platform X. Despite this backing, critics argue that Lowe’s strategy risks weakening the broader right-wing movement and inadvertently advancing Labour’s electoral prospects.

As the Makerfield by-election approaches, the impact of Restore Britain’s intervention remains a key factor shaping the contest. Whether Lowe’s campaign will ultimately achieve his goal of undermining Nigel Farage’s party or simply contribute to a Labour victory remains to be seen.