Sweden’s government has dismissed recommendations from a commission tasked with outlining strategies to phase out fossil fuels, including proposals to increase taxes on petrol and diesel in order to meet the country's ambitious climate targets for 2030. The expert panel was established in 2024 by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition, which is supported by the far-right Sweden Democrats, to identify measures aimed at reducing fossil fuel consumption, particularly within the road transport sector.

Sweden aims to cut CO2 emissions from transport by 70% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and achieve net zero emissions across the economy by 2045. The commission’s report, released this week, suggested raising the mandated share of biofuels and low-carbon alternatives that petrol suppliers must blend into their products. According to the report, the current mandates are insufficient for Sweden to meet its 2030 target without relying on emissions quota purchases abroad under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) trading system.

The panel also recommended higher taxes on petrol and diesel to encourage a shift toward electric vehicles, as well as increased subsidies for electric cars and reductions in household electricity taxes. However, these proposals run counter to the government’s policies since taking office in 2022, which have focused on lowering petrol taxes and easing biofuel blending requirements.

Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson justified the government’s stance by citing the current high petrol prices, which she said are already burdening consumers amid ongoing global challenges. Speaking to Swedish public broadcaster SVT, she noted that raising taxes further would exacerbate difficulties for households. The government recently implemented a temporary reduction in petrol taxes in response to the broader energy crisis.

Several previous expert analyses have indicated that Sweden is unlikely to meet its 2030 and 2040 climate goals under the current policy framework. In response to the commission’s report, the climate ministry emphasized the importance of phasing out fossil fuels in a manner that maintains the competitiveness of Swedish businesses and ensures a secure transition.

With a general election scheduled for September 13, the debate over climate policy and energy taxation is expected to remain a contentious issue in Sweden’s political landscape in the coming months.