Rising food prices are set to continue throughout 2026, driven by a confluence of ongoing conflicts and extreme weather events, industry experts warn. The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) projected in early April that grocery costs could increase by as much as 10 percent over the year, largely due to escalating energy expenses.

While petrol prices have experienced fluctuations, the same volatility is not expected for food prices, according to data analyzed by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). Their research indicates that following a price shock, shelf prices typically retreat by only 1 percent within six months and by roughly 5 percent after a year, suggesting a sustained upward trend in food costs.

Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, highlighted that the persistently rising prices reflected in consumer experiences are supported by data trends. He attributed the inflationary pressures to recent conflict in the Middle East, which has exacerbated the cost of oil, gas, and fertilizers—key inputs required for producing, transporting, and processing food.

Additional concerns remain around fertiliser prices, many of which are influenced by supply routes through geopolitically sensitive areas such as the Strait of Hormuz. These factors compound the cost challenges faced by supermarkets and households alike.

Analysts estimate that the average annual grocery bill for a household could increase by approximately £588 due to these combined pressures. Henry Dimbleby, who formerly led the government’s National Food Strategy, described the current surge in food inflation as “brutal,” underscoring the severity of the issue and its potential impact on consumers.

The intersection of war, energy market volatility, and extreme weather patterns continues to unsettle food supply chains globally, making affordability a growing concern for households navigating elevated grocery bills into the coming year.