The structure of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, which does not reseed teams as they advance, occasionally leads to highly anticipated matchups between the tournament's strongest teams occurring in the semifinal round rather than the championship game. This year, the semifinal pairing of Arizona and Michigan, both No. 1 seeds, is widely viewed as one such instance, with Connecticut and Illinois playing in the other semifinal. Historically, these de facto championship games have sometimes correctly foreshadowed the eventual national winner, while other times the victor of the high-stakes semifinal has been upset in the final.

One notable instance occurred in 1966 when top-ranked Kentucky faced No. 2 Duke in a semifinal. Kentucky, led by coach Adolph Rupp, defeated Duke. However, the Wildcats were subsequently upset in the championship by Texas Western, whose coach Don Haskins made history by starting five Black players, a first for an NCAA title game.

In 1974, the Final Four featured a highly anticipated rematch between No. 1 North Carolina State and No. 2 UCLA, which had dominated college basketball with seven consecutive titles under coach John Wooden. N.C. State, featuring star David Thompson, prevailed in a double-overtime thriller, snapping UCLA's dynastic run. The Wolfpack then went on to win the national championship against Marquette, confirming the semifinal's billing.

The 1983 tournament saw an aerial show as No. 1 Houston, known as "Phi Slama Jama" with Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, faced fellow No. 1 Louisville in the semifinal. Houston won the high-scoring contest. However, in one of college basketball's most famous upsets, the Cougars were defeated in the final by No. 6 seed N.C. State, who secured the victory with a last-second dunk.

More recently, the 2004 Final Four featured No. 1 Duke against No. 2 UConn. UConn, led by Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, mounted a late rally to defeat Duke, continuing a history of success against the Blue Devils. The Huskies then went on to beat Georgia Tech in the championship game, validating the perception that the tournament's most significant contest had taken place on Saturday.

These historical examples demonstrate that while some semifinal matchups generate intense excitement and are perceived as early championship deciders, the tournament’s unpredictable nature means the ultimate victor is not always determined until the final buzzer of the championship game.