An analysis by the Home Office estimates that each foreign care worker who arrived in the UK under the so-called “Boriswave” and their families will cost taxpayers more than £100,000 over their lifetimes. The figures reflect the government’s assessment of the long-term fiscal impact of the migration wave that brought large numbers of health and care workers to the country under the post-Brexit immigration system introduced during Boris Johnson’s tenure as prime minister.
According to the analysis, approximately 117,000 foreign care workers are expected to secure settled status in the UK between 2026 and 2030, with each worker projected to result in a net cost of around £36,000 to public finances across their lifetime. In addition, some 79,000 adult dependants—family members accompanying the care workers—are anticipated to settle alongside them, resulting in a greater net fiscal cost estimated at roughly £67,000 per dependant.
These figures represent only those care workers expected to remain in the UK long-term, out of a broader total of 616,266 visas issued on the health and care route between 2022 and 2024. The larger migration period, often referred to as the “Boriswave,” saw 1.6 million foreign workers arrive in the UK across various sectors.
The Home Office’s findings have directly influenced recent policy changes concerning migrant settlement rights. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced a revision extending the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain from five to ten years, effectively doubling the time migrants must wait before gaining permanent residency status.
The plans have drawn criticism from over 100 Labour MPs, who authored a letter opposing retrospective application of the new rules. Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, described the proposal as one that “pulls the rug” from families who entered the UK under previous arrangements.
In a separate but related development, children’s commissioner Dame Rachel de Souza highlighted concerns that around 27,000 children will be affected by proposals to withdraw asylum support from families with unsuccessful claims, warning about the potential social impact of forcibly removing these families.
A Home Office spokesperson stated the department is “considering all feedback” on these reforms as the government moves forward with its changes to immigration policy.
