Nearly half of Taiwanese citizens remain skeptical about the reliability of continued U.S. military aid and arms sales, according to a recent survey released ahead of the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The poll, conducted by Taiwan's United Daily News, revealed that 47 percent of respondents expressed doubt that Washington would maintain its military support to the island, surpassing the 44 percent who remain confident in U.S. commitments. The remaining 9 percent did not express an opinion. This marks a notable shift in public perception, as previous surveys showed fluctuating expectations regarding direct American military intervention. In 2018, nearly half of respondents expected U.S. troops to come to Taiwan’s defense, a figure that dipped last year before rising again this year to 47 percent as anticipating U.S. military involvement.
The survey’s findings arrive against the backdrop of a proposed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that has yet to be finalized. The package remains stalled amid diplomatic pressure from Beijing, which strongly opposes U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Reports indicate that Washington may delay the announcement of major weapons agreements until after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for November in Shenzhen. There is also speculation that any updates could be postponed further until after the Group of 20 summit in Florida later this year, where Xi is expected to attend.
William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, noted that Beijing is likely to press Trump on this issue during their meeting, hoping that continued delays might erode confidence in the U.S. security guarantee among both Taiwanese citizens and regional allies. Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defence Priorities in Washington, said Chinese officials have indicated that their objective extends beyond delays to potentially seeking outright cancellation of the arms package. However, she dismissed the notion that President Trump would exchange Taiwan-related concessions for other gains in U.S.-China relations, emphasizing that economic priorities and a desire to avoid disruption likely explain the stalled status.
Compounding uncertainty around new arms sales, Taiwan is also facing delays in receiving weapons already purchased. Two F-16 Block 70 fighter jets, part of a 66-aircraft order, have been held at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii since late August with no official explanation for postponed delivery. The delays have fueled speculation that political factors tied to the impending Xi-Trump summit may be influencing the situation, though technical and logistical reasons have also been cited.
Taiwanese legislators and security experts expressed concern that such delays contribute to declining public confidence. Lin Pei-hsiang, a member of the opposition Kuomintang party, questioned how the public could trust U.S. security support given the missed delivery schedules. Su Chi, honorary chairman of the Taipei Forum Foundation and a former senior security official, characterized the prospects for new arms sales as “very, very low,” citing Beijing’s firm opposition and warnings issued during the previous Trump-Xi meeting in May.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be reunified, by force if necessary. While most countries, including the United States, do not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, Washington maintains a policy opposing the use of force against the island and has committed to providing it with defensive weapons. The current ambiguity over U.S. military support has heightened anxieties in Taipei amid growing regional tensions.