As the 2026 midterm elections approach, a traditional Republican campaign strategy—portraying Democrats as soft on crime—is facing headwinds amid a nationwide decline in crime rates. Despite persistent efforts, the GOP’s law-and-order messaging has struggled to resonate with voters, particularly in key battleground states such as North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, and Texas.
In North Carolina, where former governor Roy Cooper is running for Senate, Republicans have repeatedly attempted to link him to recent violent incidents, often inaccurately. One campaign claimed Cooper was responsible for a murder in South Carolina, a neighboring state, while another falsely alleged he granted early release to a man involved in a fatal stabbing in Charlotte. A third ad implied that Cooper’s policies were to blame for a father’s son’s murder, a claim repudiated by the father, a Democrat, who said he was misled into endorsing the message.
Despite spending $18.5 million on crime-focused advertising in North Carolina alone, Cooper consistently leads his GOP opponent, Michael Whatley, according to polling. Political analysts say the traditional “soft on crime” argument is losing its effectiveness, in part because crime rates continue to fall. Violent crime in North Carolina is down 22 percent so far this year compared with 2024, outpacing the national decline of 14 percent, while property crime has decreased by 18 percent, mirroring the national trend.
Nationally, the murder rate reached its lowest level since 1900 last year. This sustained drop challenges Republicans' ability to credit themselves for improved public safety while simultaneously accusing Democrats of fostering disorder. Former President Donald Trump exemplified this contradiction at a recent rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, where he labeled the state’s violence as “blood-soaked” before highlighting his administration’s record on reducing violent crime.
Other issues that have traditionally energized Republican voters, such as border security and restrictions on transgender athletes, have lost momentum. Similarly, the war on Iran remains unpopular, and economic concerns like rising prices have emerged as top voter priorities. These shifts complicate GOP strategies and highlight the need for new approaches.
Democratic candidates, meanwhile, are adopting a more nuanced stance on public safety. In Texas and Michigan, Senate candidates James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed emphasize a combination of recruiting police officers and investing in housing, education, mental health services, and drug treatment as part of their broader strategy to enhance community safety. El-Sayed, a former health director, frames his vision around ensuring people feel safe returning home without fear of violence.
Both parties are increasingly moving away from extreme positions. Veteran Republican strategist Holly Harris noted that Democrats are borrowing some traditional Republican rhetoric, focusing on pragmatic, evidence-based policies rather than punitive measures.
Crime remains a central theme this election cycle, with Republicans spending over $105 million—more than a quarter of total ad expenditures—on messaging about lawlessness, compared to $35.5 million by Democrats. However, Democrats are firing back by highlighting what they see as Republican leniency toward sexual predators and controversial pardons. In Nebraska, for instance, a Democratic-leaning group criticized Republican Senator Pete Ricketts for pardoning a convicted rapist. In Texas, Talarico has accused Attorney General Ken Paxton of enabling a child molester to avoid jail time, charges Paxton’s office attributes to the victim’s unwillingness to testify.
In North Carolina, allegations have surged over “pedophile protectors,” with Democratic groups spotlighting Harvey Lee West Jr., a child sex offender who rose to influential roles within the state GOP under Whatley’s chairmanship. Whatley’s campaign denies paying West for any position but faces scrutiny over its association with him.
As crime rates continue their downward trend, the 2026 midterm campaigns reflect an evolving discourse on public safety, with traditional partisan narratives giving way to more complex debates over law enforcement, social policy, and justice reform.