DES MOINES — Rob Sand, Iowa’s state auditor and a Democrat, is positioned to become the state’s first Democratic governor in 16 years following the November election. Despite rising Democratic momentum amid President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and strong polling for Democrats, Mr. Sand’s ability to advance his agenda may be limited if Republicans maintain a legislative supermajority, enabling them to override vetoes.
Iowa’s current political landscape is dominated by Republicans, who hold significant majorities in both state legislative chambers. The Republican supermajority has facilitated the passage of conservative priorities during the 2025 legislative session under outgoing Governor Kim Reynolds, a Republican. Legislative actions have included cuts to unemployment taxes, expansion of private school voucher programs, and removal of state civil rights protections for transgender individuals.
Democrats recognize that gaining the governorship alone may not produce significant policy changes without the support of the legislature. As a result, efforts to chip away at the Republican majority have intensified, with national groups investing heavily to support moderate Democratic candidates in key districts. Among the challengers are Jill Alesch, a veteran and former prosecutor running for an open State House seat in the Des Moines suburbs, and Mike Tupper, a retired police chief and former Republican seeking to unseat a first-term Republican in Marshalltown, a small blue-collar city.
Mandara Meyers, executive director of the left-leaning States Project, cautioned that Mr. Sand’s potential victory would be only part of the equation. “You have no real teeth to your ability to actually improve the politics and improve lives in your state without that legislative power,” she said. The broader Democratic strategy includes campaigns in other states with competitive gubernatorial races to break Republican supermajorities and create a legislative balance.
Republican leaders remain confident despite these efforts, pointing to Iowa’s strong showing for Mr. Trump in the 2024 presidential election, where he secured the state by 13 percentage points. Pat Grassley, speaker of the Iowa House and grandson of Senator Chuck Grassley, dismissed outside political spending, saying Iowa voters have repeatedly rejected these attempts to flip the legislature. “In the elections since, Iowa has only trended more red,” he said.
Currently, Republicans hold a 67-33 majority in the Iowa House, the minimum threshold for a supermajority, and a 34-16 advantage in the State Senate after Democrats gained one seat in a recent special election. That narrow margin in the Senate allowed Democrats to block some of the governor’s appointments, but Republican leaders expressed optimism about regaining the lost ground in the November contests.
The two highlighted Democratic challengers reflect the party’s effort to attract moderate and independent voters. Jill Alesch, a 48-year-old retired lieutenant colonel and lawyer, emphasizes issues such as water quality, public education, and food insecurity, drawing on her military background and experience as a prosecutor. Her opponent, Nicole Hasso, a conservative financial adviser, focuses on economic matters, property taxes, and child care costs.
In Marshalltown, Mike Tupper appeals to a diverse, working-class constituency marked by a large immigrant population and economic challenges tied to the local pork processing plant. A former police chief who left the Republican Party following the 2016 election, he stresses economic and everyday concerns over divisive cultural issues. His opponent, David Blom, a Republican and sheet metal worker, advocates for low taxes and economic growth and is credited by party leaders with a strong work ethic and commitment.
As Iowa’s political battle unfolds, control of the legislature remains crucial to shaping the state’s policy direction, underscoring the stakes of the 2026 midterm elections beyond the governor’s office.