Just before President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington for his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a meeting with Trump, followed by a phone call after Xi’s departure, underscoring Tokyo’s concerns about being sidelined in any U.S.-China arrangements. Japan’s leadership is keen to ensure that its strategic interests remain prioritized amid evolving great-power dynamics.

As the summit concluded with few substantive agreements, a particular point of unease for Tokyo was Trump’s reference to the historical alliance between the United States and China against Japan during World War II. This moment resonated against the backdrop of Takaichi’s recent speech at the United Nations, where she called for Japan’s removal from the UN Charter’s designation as an “enemy state,” a status stemming from its wartime conduct.

During the Cold War, Japan served as a strategic bulwark against communist expansion in the Pacific, countering threats from the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea. However, in the current geopolitical landscape, Japan depends more heavily on American support than vice versa. This asymmetry prompts Tokyo to consider the possibility that U.S. policy may shift toward a great-power accommodation with Beijing that could diverge from Japan’s security expectations.

Takaichi’s assertive posture toward China originates from a deeply held ideological commitment. Long before assuming office, she advocated for Japan’s evolution into a “normal” nation uninhibited by the pacifist constraints imposed by its post-war constitution. As a protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a member of the ultraconservative Nippon Kaigi lobby, Takaichi supports a vision of Japan centered on military normalization and a restored imperial prominence. This approach aligns with a revisionist perspective that downplays Japan’s wartime culpability and seeks to reframe national identity.

Historically, such views were marginal within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), balanced by other factions. However, the LDP’s decisive electoral victory in early 2024—securing more than two-thirds of the lower house—has transformed these perspectives from minority positions into governing policy frameworks.

Demographic and economic shifts partly underpin this political realignment. While the post-war generation achieved prosperity and stability, younger Japanese face economic uncertainty amid prolonged stagnation. In this context, appeals to national prestige and identity may hold greater resonance.

Nonetheless, a fundamental tension remains unresolved between Japan’s kokutai—a concept of national polity anchored in the emperor—and the principle of popular sovereignty enshrined in its constitution. Tokyo has long accepted a subordinate role to the United States since its defeat in 1945, yet Japan retains its status as Asia’s leading economic and technological power and the region’s sole G7 member. Traditionally, Japan’s national dignity has been tied to Western acceptance and status above neighboring Asian countries.

This framework faces challenges amid the rise of China as a significant global power. Japan must now reconsider its conception of national dignity within the evolving regional order. Population size, for instance, is not necessarily determinative of respect; smaller states such as Singapore command global esteem.

Japan’s economic challenges—including an aging population, sluggish growth, high public debt, and a weak currency—raise questions about its capacity to expand military capabilities substantially. Furthermore, Japan’s economy remains intertwined with China through trade and supply chains, highlighting the pragmatic benefits of maintaining amicable relations with neighboring countries.

Japan’s geopolitical predicament is thus partially self-imposed, stemming from unresolved questions about national identity dating back to the Meiji Restoration and intensified since World War II. The American occupation instituted a democratic framework but left Japan’s deeper kokutai concept intact, which is now experiencing a revival under Takaichi’s leadership.

Ultimately, the critical issue for Japan is whether its national security policy prioritizes the well-being of its people or upholds an abstract, imperial-centered vision of the nation. After more than 80 years, Japan faces a pivotal choice in defining its own dignity and the foundations of its identity in a rapidly changing world.