As the Nov. 3 midterm elections approach, President Donald Trump is promoting a narrative of strong economic performance. However, many voters continue to grapple with persistent inflation, rising gasoline prices linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran, and elevated costs in essential goods and borrowing, creating a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.
When Trump took office in January 2025, he pledged to tackle record-high inflation, vowing to use all available government resources to bring down prices. Despite these promises, inflation trends have been uneven. The consumer price index (CPI) had been steadily declining from Biden-era highs, but after Trump announced extensive new tariffs in April 2025, inflation pressures intensified. The outbreak of war in Iran this year further contributed to price increases, particularly in energy costs. The most recent data show the CPI has risen 3.7% over the past year, reflecting a decline from previous peaks but remaining a concern for many Americans.
Consumer confidence surveys depict a skeptical public. According to a University of Michigan survey, confidence in the economy is lower now than during previous crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial downturn, even though the U.S. is not currently in a recession. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged slightly above 2% annually under Trump, a rate that outpaces many mature economies but falls short of the growth achieved under his predecessor, Joe Biden.
Trump has maintained that economic growth under his administration has been historic. At a campaign event in Arizona, he asserted that the country is experiencing an unprecedented surge in growth and foreign investment. However, economic experts note that some of these claims overstate the facts, and investment figures reflect a combination of existing trends and optimistic projections.
The unemployment rate, currently at 4.2%, remains low, a carryover from previous administrations amid what economists describe as a “low hire, low fire” labor market. While Trump touts record job numbers, much of this increase aligns with population growth rather than new policy effects. Monthly job additions in his second term average about 39,000, significantly lower than the 121,000 monthly gains seen in the year before his return. A notable factor in slower employment growth is the administration’s restrictive immigration policies, which have reduced the overall labor force participation without substantially affecting the unemployment rate among native-born workers.
On the borrowing front, rising interest rates are posing challenges. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surpassed 5%, levels not seen since 2002, increasing borrowing costs for consumers and the government. This has made financing homes, vehicles, and other major purchases more expensive amidst high inflation and federal debt growth.
Trump frequently highlights stock market gains as evidence of economic strength. The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 12% this year and about 16.4% last year, though the market’s trajectory is influenced by multiple factors beyond presidential actions, including strong performance in technology stocks. Some analysts suggest that Trump’s tax cuts may have supported corporate earnings, contributing to these gains.
Wealth distribution data during Trump’s presidency reveal growing disparities. The top 0.1% of households have seen their wealth increase by $5.5 trillion in 18 months, while the bottom 50% experienced a collective gain of $380 billion. On average, the wealth of households in the bottom half rose by roughly $5,600, compared with an average increase of $40.8 million for the wealthiest 0.1%.
Overall, the U.S. economy under Trump displays a complex mix of moderate growth, persistent inflationary pressures, and widening inequality, leaving many voters ambivalent as they head to the polls.