On 10 June 2026, Peru’s government announced an unprecedented suspension of all anchoveta fishing along its north-central coast, initially a temporary measure that by mid-August evolved into a total closure of the season. This decision came amid growing concern over the impacts of a developing super El Niño event, one anticipated to be the strongest on record since the 1880s, with significant implications for the anchoveta population and the broader marine ecosystem.

Peru’s anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) fishery is among the world’s largest, historically accounting for about 10% of the global commercial catch by weight. Anchoveta are primarily processed into fishmeal and fish oil, essential components for aquaculture and livestock feed globally, with Peru dominating export markets. The anchoveta industry is a critical economic driver for Peru, generating close to $3 billion in some years and directly employing nearly 50,000 people, with extended employment impacts estimated to affect around 250,000 more. The Peruvian central bank projects a severe contraction of over 30% in the fishing sector for 2026, alongside the loss of roughly 78,000 jobs, with further reductions anticipated in 2027.

The suspension stems from scientific warnings by the Instituto del Mar del Perú about the risks posed by the El Niño-driven warming of coastal waters. El Niño events disrupt the Humboldt Current system—which typically brings nutrient-rich cold waters to the surface—by weakening trade winds and causing warmer waters to pile up along the coast. This hampers upwelling, reducing the availability of plankton, the anchoveta’s primary food source, and subsequently diminishing anchoveta populations. Past severe El Niño episodes have triggered dramatic crashes in anchoveta stocks, compounding pressures from overfishing and industrial fishing practices.

This year, the harvest was halted without reaching the initially set quota of 1.9 million tonnes, with only about 24% of that amount caught before fishing was suspended. In recent decades, the roll of regulatory oversight has increased, with Peru frequently adjusting quotas in response to fish stock assessments. However, the anchoveta fishery remains vulnerable to environmental variability and the overarching effects of climate change, which intensify ocean warming, acidification, and disrupt reproductive cycles and population distribution. Estimates suggest a future decline in anchoveta abundance of 8 to 14 percent per decade throughout this century.

The pause in fishing has already caused a sharp contraction in Peru’s fisheries sector and led to a spike in global fishmeal prices, which have more than doubled compared to last year. These price surges are expected to have wide-reaching effects on food supply chains, aquaculture, and livestock industries worldwide. The government defends the closure as a necessary step prioritizing long-term sustainability over short-term economic gains, despite pressure from powerful industry actors who argue the decisions threaten their survival.

Peru’s fisheries managers maintain strict control, conducting extensive inspections and policing illegal fishing activities to preserve remaining stocks. While the anchoveta population has shown resilience historically, the intersection of intense industrial fishing, climate-driven environmental stresses, and increasingly severe El Niño events creates a precarious outlook. The fishery’s fate is not only an economic issue for Peru but also a key indicator of marine ecosystem health in the Pacific, with potential cascading effects on predator species, biodiversity, and global fisheries.