President Xi Jinping of China is set to visit Washington amid a shifting dynamic that positions China in a more assertive role relative to the United States, reflecting changes in global power and recent U.S. policies. Historically, U.S. presidents have largely guided the agenda during China-U.S. summits, but experts note that this visit marks a departure, with Xi appearing to take the lead.
Observers highlight that China’s growing economic strength—nearly achieving “high-income” status according to the World Bank—and strategic maneuvers have contributed to this new stance. Nonetheless, the visit comes amid ongoing tensions, including Beijing’s recent sentencing of Hong Kong democracy activists and its continued support for countries under international sanctions, such as Iran and North Korea. These actions have further complicated the bilateral relationship.
During a previous meeting in May, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly requested Xi to release Jimmy Lai, a prominent advocate for democracy, a request that was declined by Chinese authorities. Meanwhile, Xi’s government has maintained control over rare earth exports—critical for global manufacturing—which adds leverage as export control suspensions are set to expire in November.
Further compounding U.S. disadvantages, analysts cite the trade war initiated by the Trump administration last year, which has strained the American economy without yielding decisive outcomes. At the same time, ongoing U.S. military engagements, particularly regarding Iran, have depleted arms stockpiles, potentially limiting American influence and responsiveness in strategic regions, including the Pacific and the Middle East.
The global perception of the United States has been impacted by these developments. A recent poll conducted by the Rockefeller Foundation indicates that numerous countries, including Canada, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico, now view the United States as a greater threat than Russia or China. Some scholars argue this signals a retreat of American influence worldwide, citing challenges such as the erosion of alliances and questions about U.S. commitment to democracy and international norms.
Despite these factors, some experts caution against declaring the end of the American age. The U.S. retains considerable technological and institutional strengths, while China faces internal challenges, including concerns over governance succession and demographic pressures. There remains a tentative hope that upcoming U.S. elections could influence the nation’s trajectory.
Both leaders appear interested in reducing tensions and stabilizing their countries’ relationship. Among the agenda items for discussion is artificial intelligence (AI), a field where cooperation is widely seen as crucial to addressing global safety risks. Although substantive agreements seem unlikely given differing governmental perspectives—Trump has questioned AI-related concerns, while Xi’s focus is more on preventing technological abuse against the Chinese Communist Party—experts suggest there could be scope for limited collaboration.
Rajiv Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, points to the possibility of targeting specific risks such as bioterrorism, where AI and synthetic biology converge to create new threats. Practical cooperation could involve establishing protocols to mitigate these risks and creating communication channels to manage AI-related incidents that might escalate into military or diplomatic crises.
As the broader geopolitical order evolves, modest, concrete steps on issues like AI governance might offer a pathway toward cautious engagement, even if larger strategic differences remain unresolved.