The introduction of a 20% value-added tax (VAT) on private school fees in England has not led to a significant migration of pupils into the state education system, according to newly released admissions data and government statements. The tax, implemented at the start of 2025 under the Labour government, marked a shift from the previous exemption on private school fees.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson cited the latest figures as evidence that concerns about a mass exodus from private education were unfounded. “The predicted exodus from private schools simply hasn’t happened and today’s data proves it,” Phillipson said. She emphasized that fears state schools would be overwhelmed or that private schools would close in large numbers had not materialized. The government intends this policy to rebalance resources toward the approximately 94% of children enrolled in state schools, whom Phillipson described as having been long overlooked.

The data, collected from Department for Education (DfE) records of school applications made in October 2025 for the academic year starting in September 2026, showed no increase in demand for state education. In fact, overall applications for primary and secondary places declined slightly compared to previous years. Nearly 85% of secondary school applicants secured their first-choice school, an improvement over figures from 2024 and 2025.

Local authorities in London boroughs with traditionally high rates of private schooling exhibited mixed results. Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea saw decreases in applications to state schools, while Islington experienced a modest rise. However, the proportion of families in Islington obtaining their preferred secondary school fell from 68% to 66%. Across London, 94% of secondary applicants and 98% of primary applicants received offers from one of their top six school preferences, indicating a system not currently under significant pressure.

Several experts have suggested that demographic factors, such as a decline in birthrates and population changes post-Brexit, may have tempered potential impacts of the VAT increase on private school enrolment. The DfE’s 2026 school census noted a 1.2% decrease in overall pupil numbers, with independent schools experiencing a sharper decline of 3.8%, equivalent to about 22,000 fewer pupils than in 2025.

The Independent Schools Council (ISC), representing many private schools across the UK, reported a loss of 30,000 pupils since VAT was introduced. The discrepancy with DfE figures arises partly because the ISC’s numbers include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and many private schools outside its membership.

Despite some closures in mainstream private schools, the sector has seen a net increase in the number of operating institutions in England, highlighted by the opening of 88 additional independent special schools, which offset the closure of 47 mainstream schools.

The Labour government anticipates that VAT revenues from private school fees will exceed initial projections, estimating an annual take of £1.8 billion by 2029-30. Funds raised are pledged to support hiring an extra 6,500 teachers, particularly targeting secondary education, special needs, and further education sectors. However, the National Audit Office has expressed skepticism regarding the Department for Education’s capacity to meet these recruitment goals within the current parliamentary term.