In one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests, Republican nominee Ken Paxton is facing significant challenges in securing financial support, even as his race in Texas could prove decisive for control of the U.S. Senate. Despite the high stakes, major Republican donors and super PACs have yet to commit substantial spending to Paxton’s campaign, leaving the Texas contest in an unusual financial stalemate.

Paxton, the state attorney general, secured the Republican nomination after a contentious primary that saw him defeat incumbent Senator John Cornyn. However, lingering animosities from that bitter race remain a barrier to fundraising, as many donors who backed Cornyn continue to view Paxton unfavorably. Reports of Paxton’s personal conduct and controversial international travel have also dampened donor enthusiasm. According to Republicans close to the campaign, this has contributed to Paxton’s struggles to attract the level of financial backing typical for a competitive statewide race in Texas.

The state’s vast media market further complicates fundraising efforts. Texas, with its more than 18 television markets, requires a formidable investment to run a comprehensive paid-media campaign. Republican insiders estimate that roughly $15 million a week would be needed in advertising to mount an effective effort. So far, no significant outside spending has been registered, with major groups like the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc. waiting for the other to take the lead.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and a backer of Cornyn during the primary, has taken a cautious approach. Although it is funding polling and research, the group excluded Texas from its recent $342 million spending plan focused on other battleground states. Officials have indicated financial constraints and uncertainty elsewhere on the map, including in Montana, influence their allocation decisions.

On the opposite side, MAGA Inc., a super PAC aligned with former President Donald Trump possessing nearly $400 million in cash, has yet to announce its spending plans in Texas despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton before the runoff primary. Party insiders suggest MAGA Inc. is expected to step up but has remained discreet about timing and scale. High-profile conversations between leadership of both super PACs have taken place, though donors speculate a game of waiting to see who commits first is underway.

Meanwhile, Paxton’s Democratic opponent, James Talarico, has reported strong fundraising numbers and has been actively advertising since June, with approximately $12 million in television spots introducing himself to Texas voters. Although national Democratic groups have yet to reserve ad time in the state, Talarico’s campaign is buoyed by its own fundraising efforts and recent contributions from a pro-Talarico super PAC, highlighting his relative financial independence in the race.

Efforts to raise funds by Paxton’s team continue amid these hurdles. The campaign reported $7 million raised in June, according to an adviser, who asserted that support is growing despite external perceptions. Paxton has sought donations from prominent GOP donors who previously backed Cornyn, though responses have been mixed, with some declining to engage. The campaign is planning high-profile fundraising events in Aspen, Colorado, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and has formed a joint fundraising committee with Senator Ted Cruz.

On Capitol Hill, a notable shift occurred as Senator Thune recently hosted a fundraiser for Paxton and reaffirmed support for the Texas race. Other Republican senators have predicted that outside group spending will increase later this summer, though specific plans remain undisclosed.

As the midterm elections approach, Paxton’s financial situation and donor dynamics will likely remain central to the trajectory of this pivotal Senate contest in Texas.