At a highly secured facility within Fort Detrick, Maryland, the U.S. government is intensifying efforts to assess emerging biological threats, particularly those potentially amplified by advances in artificial intelligence. The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center (NBACC), a federal laboratory established after the events of 9/11 and subsequent anthrax attacks, focuses on understanding how biological agents might be weaponized and how to respond if such an attack occurs.

Fort Detrick, already known for housing the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID), is a hub for research aimed at protecting military personnel from infectious threats through the development of vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments. NBACC’s mission differs in that it evaluates adversarial capabilities to create biological weapons, explores the potential impact of such weapons, and conducts forensic analysis to identify agents used in attacks.

One case exemplifying the challenges of biological weapon development before the widespread use of AI involved Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani scientist educated in the United States and convicted of attempting to kill U.S. personnel in Afghanistan. An FBI investigation revealed that Siddiqui possessed detailed plans for a “mass casualty attack” involving biological agents, as well as various substances and target lists. Experts analyzing her materials described an attempt to engineer a hybrid pathogen combining the lethality of rabies with the contagiousness of chickenpox.

However, while Siddiqui had scientific training and access to research environments earlier in her career, she lacked the broad expertise necessary to transform her concepts into an operational weapon. Analysts attribute some of this gap to barriers she faced, including limited access to male-dominated labs and collaborators due to cultural and organizational restrictions.

Officials at Fort Detrick acknowledge that artificial intelligence changes the landscape by acting as a force multiplier for expertise. AI can rapidly process vast scientific literature, identify connections across disciplines, troubleshoot experimental failures, and accelerate research timelines. While AI does not create fundamentally new biological threats on its own, it lowers the barriers for actors with malicious intent to develop or enhance dangerous pathogens.

The availability of raw biological material in nature remains a concern complicating threat assessments. Unlike nuclear weapons, which require access to scarce fissile material, many pathogenic organisms exist widely in the environment. Diseases like rabies are endemic in animal populations, including within the United States. This accessibility increases the risk that biological outbreaks—whether natural or deliberately engineered—could initially be indistinguishable, presenting a significant challenge for national security and bioforensics.

NBACC scientists, led by director Dr. Nicholas Bergman, conduct analyses to assess whether proposed biological threats are plausible, breaking down adversaries’ plans to test their viability. While specific investigations are classified, the lab’s stated role is to determine the feasibility of threats described only hypothetically.

The intersection of AI and biology has drawn divergent views from public figures and experts regarding the imminence of related risks. Some dismiss warnings of catastrophe as politically motivated or exaggerated, while others emphasize the growing complexity and severity of the challenge. Experts agree, however, that the convergence of advanced biotechnology and AI poses substantial risks that must be addressed through coordinated scientific, security, and policy responses.