AI build-out widens U.S. merchandise-trade deficit amid capital goods surge

By the Editorial Team · Friday, October 30, 2026

The U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September, hitting the highest level since March 2025 due mainly to a record 7.5% surge in imports of capital goods tied to AI infrastructure investment. This growing gap underscores the reliance on imported tech hardware and is expected to weigh on third-quarter GDP growth despite gains in equipment investment and exports of consumer goods and food products.

The United States merchandise trade deficit expanded for the third consecutive month in September, driven primarily by a surge in imports of capital goods linked to the ongoing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Department of Commerce data released Wednesday showed the goods trade shortfall increased 2.1% from August to $134.9 billion, marking the highest monthly deficit since March 2025. This was larger than the $130.2 billion median forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The figures are not adjusted for inflation. Imports rose 2.4% over the month, while exports increased 2.6%. Capital goods imports, which encompass products such as computers, semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment vital to expanding AI data centers, climbed a record 7.5% in September. This category has been the principal driver of the wider trade deficit over the past year amid accelerating AI-related investment.

“So much of the hardware that the tech companies need is coming from overseas, driving a massive widening in the trade gap,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander Capital Markets. The deficit on capital goods imports is now $54.3 billion larger compared to a year ago, exceeding the total increase in the overall goods deficit during that period.

Consumer goods imports rose 3.1% in September, the largest monthly increase in four months, but remained 12% below levels from a year earlier. On the export side, shipments of consumer goods increased 6.5%, while food, feed, and beverage exports jumped 12.8%. These gains were partially offset by a 1.6% decline in exports of industrial supplies, a category that includes petroleum products and volatile nonmonetary gold trade.

Additional data released alongside the trade figures showed retail inventories rose 0.3% and wholesale inventories increased by 0.6%. These inventory trends, combined with trade data, are expected to influence the government’s estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Prior to the latest trade report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model projected net exports would subtract 2.86 percentage points from GDP growth in the third quarter, compared with a 1.10-point drag in the second quarter.

Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that while net trade remains a significant drag on GDP, this may be partly offset by a substantial rise in equipment investment, particularly in computer hardware. “At least some of the import surge also likely will show up in inventories. That latest data, however, suggests that this offset will be modest,” he said.

More comprehensive trade data, including the services sector and inflation-adjusted merchandise figures, are expected later this week. Earlier reports also indicated a 1.1% increase in import prices and a 2.2% rise in export prices for September.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.