The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported on Thursday that global trade in goods is expected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2026, nearly doubling its forecast from March. The increase is largely driven by heightened spending on advanced chips and other equipment required for artificial intelligence (AI) production, which has significantly boosted international commerce.

Despite challenges posed by the ongoing war in the Middle East and lingering tariffs from the previous U.S. administration, the WTO remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting a further acceleration in trade growth to 4.1 percent in 2027. Johanna Hill, deputy director-general of the WTO, emphasized the resilience of the global economy and trade networks during a press briefing, describing it as a “striking feature” over the past six months.

The conflict in the Middle East has created notable obstacles, including rising energy prices and disruptions in shipping routes, particularly related to Iran. These factors have complicated trade logistics and supply chains. However, firms and global supply networks have adjusted to these conditions, with producers in other regions stepping in to compensate for shortages in energy and fertilizer supplies.

The WTO cautioned that the impact of these disruptions has not been evenly distributed. According to the organization’s chief economist, Robert Staiger, the war has had a pronounced effect on trade flows within the Middle East. Exports of crude oil from the region fell by 24 percent in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, while liquefied natural gas exports dropped by 47 percent.

Nevertheless, global trading systems have helped mitigate some of the damage by enabling countries outside the region to ramp up production and exports, offsetting the losses. Trade in goods related to AI infrastructure surged by approximately 67 percent in the first half of 2026, representing about half of the overall increase in the value of global goods trade during that period.

Staiger summarized the year’s contrasting trends by noting that 2026 has been “shaped by two opposing forces: a Middle East conflict affecting services as much as goods, and an exceptionally strong wave of investment in AI infrastructure.” So far, he said, the positive influence of AI-related trade has outweighed the negative effects stemming from geopolitical tensions.