Airfares from the Asia-Pacific region to Western destinations remain elevated amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to a report released on October 7 by Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & ME). The conflict, which erupted on February 28, has significantly disrupted air traffic along key routes connecting the two regions.
The report analyzed the top 100 routes between Asia-Pacific countries and Western destinations, focusing on passenger volumes and pricing trends. It found that although the premium for direct flights from Asia-Pacific to the West over itineraries with stopovers in the Middle East had spiked sharply in early 2026, this premium has since declined to levels comparable to those recorded in 2025.
In 2025, direct flights were approximately 18% more expensive than routes transiting through major Middle Eastern hubs. This difference widened to nearly 50% in April 2026 following the outbreak of hostilities. However, from May onward, a decrease in flights and increased prices in the Middle East led to some direct flights becoming comparatively cheaper. Eleven key airports in the Middle East operated only 66% of their usual flights from March through August but have since restored capacity to around 80% as of August, the report noted.
Stefano Baronci, director-general of ACI APAC & ME, explained that while the premium for direct flights has normalized to pre-conflict averages, overall airfare levels on both direct and connecting flights remain higher than in 2025. The report originally anticipated a return to typical fare levels from September 2026, assuming Middle Eastern airports would resume full operational capacity. However, Baronci indicated that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including recent flight suspensions by several carriers, may hinder this recovery.
Some airlines have extended cancellations of routes to Middle Eastern destinations amid persistent tensions. Singapore Airlines and its low-cost subsidiary Scoot have prolonged their suspension of Singapore–Middle East flights until December 2026, while Cathay Pacific has halted its services to the region until at least January 2027.
In a related finding, the report highlighted the economic significance of Singapore’s aviation sector within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Singapore’s Changi Airport contributed US$7.9 billion to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, surpassing the combined airport contributions of Thailand (US$3.1 billion) and Malaysia (US$3 billion). Including wider trade, investment, and productivity indicators, the aviation sector’s total impact on Singapore’s economy reached US$22 billion, the highest among ASEAN nations.
Furthermore, when factoring in the aviation sector’s broader catalytic effects on tourism, it contributed an estimated US$478 billion to Singapore’s GDP and supported approximately 597,000 jobs in 2025. While Thailand led ASEAN in overall socioeconomic impact due to its tourism sector, Singapore generated the highest government revenue from aviation activity, totaling US$3.1 billion compared with US$1.5 billion in Malaysia and US$1.3 billion in Thailand.
Baronci attributed Singapore’s robust aviation performance to several factors, including significant capital investment, a skilled workforce, and a pro-business environment, which together accounted for 42% of ASEAN’s direct aviation GDP. Across the region, the aviation industry supported 23.3 million jobs and contributed US$244 billion to GDP in 2025.
Annual passenger traffic through ASEAN airports is projected to grow substantially from 650 million in 2024 to 2.9 billion by 2056, underscoring the region’s expanding aviation market despite current challenges.