Islamist militant violence in Africa’s Sahel region is approaching unprecedented levels, driven by groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State, according to recent data from the conflict monitoring organisation Acled. The sharp rise in violence across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger underscores the expanding influence of these groups in a region that has become a central battleground for jihadist activity.
Since 2016, the number of violent incidents involving jihadist groups in the Sahel has surged dramatically, from just 63 events to 2,845 in 2025. This year has already seen 2,145 incidents recorded, suggesting that the annual total for 2026 could exceed 3,000 if the current trajectory continues. While global terrorism-related deaths have declined to their lowest levels since 2008, the Sahel has experienced a marked increase in fatalities. The United Nations estimates that over 9,000 people have died in security incidents across the three countries in 2025.
The al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched a significant joint offensive in Mali in April, targeting key towns and government forces, including Russian mercenaries. This offensive reversed gains made by the Malian junta three years prior. Since then, JNIM has expanded its control in Mali, killing soldiers and mercenaries and extending operations into neighboring countries. Violence has also occurred among rival militias and includes actions by government forces and Russian private military contractors.
JNIM has claimed more than 130 attacks in Burkina Faso in 2026, notably striking closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. In Niger, JNIM carried out at least 17 attacks but remains less active than its primary rival, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent UN intelligence report.
Experts note that these jihadist factions in the Sahel have deviated from al-Qaida's original global ambitions, particularly the goal of targeting Western countries. Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, observed that these groups operate locally, and there have been no planned attacks in Europe or the United States emanating from the Sahel region.
In East Africa, the al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab continues to control large rural areas in Somalia and remains one of the deadliest militant groups on the continent, with Acled recording more than 10,000 deaths from related violence in the past 18 months. Despite setbacks in its extortion operations in Mogadishu, al-Shabaab maintains extensive financial networks throughout Somalia and the wider region.
Other IS-linked militant groups are active in sub-Saharan countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad, and Nigeria, where U.S. airstrikes targeted their positions last year.
Contrasting with these localised and regional conflicts, al-Qaida’s global leadership is widely regarded as diminished and marginalised. The death of former leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in 2022 left no clear successor. Saif al-Adel, believed to reside in Iran, is the de facto leader but has not publicly communicated. The group’s remaining infrastructure is thought to be largely confined to Afghanistan.
The Yemen-based Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains the most significant affiliate outside Africa and continues to advocate attacks against the United States and its allies. Despite this, AQAP’s militant activity has declined sharply, with a 70% reduction in recorded events from early 2025 to the same period in 2026.
While groups like JNIM and al-Shabaab mobilise tens of thousands of fighters, analysts highlight that the nature and scale of their operations differ substantially from al-Qaida’s global insurgency in the years following 9/11. The recent rise of militant violence in the Sahel reflects complex local dynamics rather than a resurgence of al-Qaida’s worldwide ambitions.