Questions about the popularity of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are mounting amid recent policy decisions, including last week’s interest rate increase. However, when viewed against the historical context of postwar Australian leaders, Albanese does not yet rank among the most unpopular prime ministers.
Public and political sentiment may be sharply divided, with strong feelings expressed particularly by those outside the Labor Party. This polarization recalls earlier leadership contests, such as those involving Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, although in some cases public animus was less pronounced, as seen in the transitional period between John Howard and Kevin Rudd.
Analysis of approval ratings offers a broader perspective. Using net approval data from Newspoll since 1985, averaged over the tenure of individual prime ministers, Albanese ranks fifth-lowest among his nine peers over the past four decades, registering an average net approval of minus 3.8 percent. Scott Morrison scores higher, placing third best with an average net approval rating of 5.3 percent.
Among former prime ministers, Kevin Rudd holds the highest average net approval rating at 23.8 percent, while Paul Keating registers the lowest, with a net average of minus 24 percent over his leadership. Keating’s tenure, despite widespread recognition of his economic credentials, was marked by some of the lowest public approval figures recorded, illustrating a complex relationship between economic management and voter sentiment.
In contrast, John Howard maintained an average net approval of 6.6 percent across his lengthy time in office, and Bob Hawke, often regarded as a highly popular leader, averages a slightly negative figure of minus 2.4 percent based on available but limited older data. This reflects the difficulty in comparing leadership popularity across different eras with varying polling methodologies.
When considering personal likability, which can be a crucial factor in electoral success, Albanese’s position is similarly middling. Recent polling from January indicated that over 50 percent of respondents liked him, but this is lower than the peak likability scores recorded by his predecessors including Rudd (73 percent), Gillard (66 percent), Turnbull (62 percent), and Morrison (57 percent). Abbott’s likability was notably lower at 40 percent. Importantly, all these leaders experienced declines in likability by the end of their terms, a trend that often correlates with electoral defeat.
Ultimately, while Albanese faces significant political challenges and dissatisfaction in some quarters, historical data suggest he has not yet reached the depths of unpopularity experienced by some former prime ministers. The dynamics of approval and likability underscore the nuanced interplay between leadership performance, public perception, and electoral outcomes in Australian politics.