One Nation’s recent victory in the Western Australian state by-election for the seat of Secret Harbour has sent ripples through Australia’s political landscape, challenging the dominance of the traditional major parties. The election on Saturday saw One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen secure the seat with a 57-43 percent margin over the Labor candidate, marking the party’s first lower-house win in Western Australia.
Secret Harbour is an outer-suburban, working-class electorate previously regarded as a Labor stronghold. In the 2025 WA state election, Labor secured approximately 46.5 percent of the primary vote there, while One Nation garnered just 8.4 percent. Within a year, Labor’s support plunged to around 24 percent, One Nation surged to about 39 percent, and the Liberal vote also declined, highlighting a significant realignment of voter preferences. This shift comes despite Western Australia’s relative economic prosperity, supported by resource industries and favorable fiscal arrangements.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described One Nation as a “dangerous” and “divisive” force, accusing the party of spreading misinformation and fostering division among Australians. Speaking at the Queensland state Labor conference, Albanese emphasized the need to “defeat” such populist movements, which he argued offer “no serious answers” to national challenges. Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers similarly referenced the “dangerous” threat posed by One Nation following the result. Albanese’s comments were met with criticism from One Nation figures and allied politicians, including MP Barnaby Joyce, who accused the Prime Minister of making unfounded allegations and misrepresenting the party’s positions.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson interpreted the victory as a clear indicator of her party’s growing influence and a warning to Labor ahead of the 2028 federal election. Hanson asserted that voters, particularly those feeling disenfranchised or ignored by metropolitan political elites, are seeking “hope” through her party. She forecast that no Labor seat, including those in Western Australia and beyond, can be considered safe from what she described as an “orange tsunami.”
Political analysts pointed to broader trends underlying One Nation’s rise, noting a widespread sense of economic, social, and cultural estrangement among working-class and outer suburban voters. This disenchantment is said to stem from perceptions that major parties have prioritized the interests and values of affluent, metropolitan communities while neglecting those outside these circles. The phenomenon mirrors similar populist surges in other Western democracies, where right-wing movements have reshaped traditional party allegiances.
Despite the disruptions, established parties maintain institutional strengths, and coalition dynamics remain complex. Some commentators argue that cooperation between the Coalition and One Nation is unlikely to produce stable governments, warning of potential chaos if such alliances were attempted. The Liberals and Nationals face the challenge of retaining votes from constituents who are defecting to One Nation while also positioning themselves as a credible alternative to Labor.
Recent polling reflects One Nation’s continued momentum, with the party reclaiming the position as Australia’s most popular party in Newspoll, rising to 30 percent of the primary vote nationally, narrowly ahead of Labor’s 29 percent. The dynamics of upcoming state elections in Victoria and New South Wales are anticipated to be influenced by competition among Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation, shaping the broader political environment in the lead-up to the next federal election.