With a week remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, the central narrative for both Republicans and Democrats revolves around former President Donald Trump and his influence on voter turnout and the election’s stakes. Trump has positioned himself as the key figure in the contest, urging supporters to “pretend that I’m on the ballot” and warning that failing to do so could result in the loss of his policy achievements.
On October 25, Trump delivered a nearly 90-minute rally speech in Port Huron, Michigan, emphasizing his role as a motivator for Republican voters. He claimed unprecedented success in rally attendance and political engagement, stating, “There’s never been anything like this in the history of politics anywhere.” Trump also highlighted his reclaiming of the traditional holiday greeting during his presidency as part of his broader cultural impact.
A day earlier in Detroit, former President Barack Obama articulated the stakes similarly, framing the election as a choice to end a decade marked by what he described as chaos and mismanagement associated with Trump’s tenure. Obama exhorted Michigan voters to seek change and viewed the midterms as a referendum on Trump’s legacy rather than on the parties alone.
This focus on the president’s influence diverges from past midterm elections when sitting presidents often sought to distance themselves from candidates to avoid electoral backlash. For example, in 2022, President Joe Biden insisted the midterms were not a referendum on his administration despite low approval ratings, a stance that did not prevent Democrats from losing control of the House and seats in the Senate. Similarly, in the 2014 midterms, Obama advised vulnerable Democratic candidates to campaign independently of his image amid diminished popularity.
However, both Trump and Obama have acknowledged the broader implications of midterm results for a sitting president’s policy agenda, even if the president is not directly on the ballot. Trump, unlike some predecessors, has actively encouraged alignment with his campaign, eschewing any suggestion that candidates distance themselves from him.
Political advertising patterns reflect the emphasis on Trump this cycle. While Republican primary ads heavily featured Trump, Democratic candidates have outpaced Republicans in invoking his name during the general election, reportedly at an 11-to-1 ratio. This dynamic positions Trump as a pivotal figure driving turnout among both supporters and opponents.
Despite this central role, public opinion polls underscore challenges for both parties. A recent Gallup Governance Poll found favorable views of the Democratic Party at 43%, while the Republican Party’s favorable rating was even lower at 35%.
As Election Day nears, the 2026 midterms increasingly appear as a referendum on Trump’s political influence and legacy, with both parties framing the contest around his continued impact on the national agenda and electoral dynamics.