The United States is set to hold its midterm elections tomorrow, which could reshape Congress amid concerns over its recent performance. The current 119th Congress has been widely criticized for minimal legislative activity and a perceived failure to hold former President Donald Trump and his administration accountable.
Since January, the House of Representatives has met for only 383 hours, the lowest attendance in a midterm election year since at least 1990. Apart from Trump’s notable tax cut legislation — partially offset by healthcare spending reductions — few major reforms have passed. Notably, two bipartisan bills have seen limited effect: one mandates the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, of which about half remain unpublished, and another, passed after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham, authorized Trump to impose harsher sanctions on Russia, which he instead relaxed.
The midterms could bring significant change, with polls indicating that the Democratic Party has a strong chance of reclaiming the House and potentially the Senate, which would establish a divided government. A larger Democratic margin could make it more difficult for Trump to contest the election results. While courts have blocked attempts by Trump to control mail-in ballots and obtain state voter rolls, there are concerns based on his past rhetoric about possible efforts to interfere more directly, including disinformation campaigns and the potential involvement of federal agents at polling sites. Although armed federal officers are barred from voting locations, fears remain that Immigration and Customs Enforcement could conduct raids based on false claims of non-citizen voting.
Should Democrats regain control of Capitol Hill, expectations for oversight and legislative action would rise, but their power may face limits. Trump is likely to veto key Democratic priorities such as reversing healthcare cuts and abolishing ICE. Furthermore, investigations into alleged corruption involving Trump and his administration could be hampered by limited congressional enforcement capabilities and the reliance on the Department of Justice, headed by a Trump ally, for prosecution referrals.
Democrats may focus on documenting Trump’s business dealings and alleged conflicts of interest involving him and his family. They are also expected to investigate allegations related to Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which reportedly shut down portions of the federal government without proper authorization.
Efforts to initiate a third impeachment against Trump are considered unlikely to succeed, as securing a two-thirds Senate majority for conviction remains remote. There is also concern that such moves could energize Trump’s base rather than diminish his standing.
Overall, the midterm elections represent a critical juncture for American democracy, with the potential to restore some congressional oversight and challenge executive authority. The extent to which Democrats can leverage their possible gains to hold Trump’s administration accountable and educate the public on issues of governance and ethics could influence the political landscape heading into the 2028 presidential election.