Israel’s political landscape ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections remains marked by significant uncertainty and fragmentation, echoing historical patterns of volatility but shaped by contemporary challenges. The election, set for October 28, follows a period characterized by deep divisions and demographic shifts that continue to influence voter behavior and party dynamics.
Reflecting on past elections, the political scene was once dominated by large, stable parties such as David Ben-Gurion’s Mapai, which secured 47 seats in 1959. In contrast, current projections indicate a fragmented parliament with no single party expected to approach that level of dominance. This political rigidity now results from divergent interests within both the right-wing and opposition blocs, contributing to a stalemate where only marginal shifts in power are anticipated.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu currently leads a coalition largely composed of right-wing and religious parties. According to analysts, Netanyahu appears to believe that only a unified all-Right/religious coalition can guarantee his political survival. Opposing him is a loose alliance of right-center-left groups that largely rally around the goal of preventing Netanyahu’s return to power rather than presenting a cohesive alternative platform.
Several new lists on the right and center-right are attempting to attract disenfranchised Likud voters. These include groups led by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, Yoaz Hendel and Chilli Troper, and Benny Gantz with Dedi Simchi. While these factions generally agree on policy matters such as the enlistment of ultra-Orthodox (haredi) citizens in military or national service, they differ regarding potential coalition partners. Current polling suggests that these groups may not pass the 3.25% electoral threshold individually, leaving their impact uncertain until the September 28 deadline for registration.
The Arab electorate also plays a critical role in shaping election outcomes. It remains unclear how many Arab parties will contest the polls, and if Ra’am will promote Yoav Segalovitz, a former MK for Yesh Atid, as a candidate for National Security Minister. Projections estimate that Arab parties could jointly gain between 10 and 15 seats, which would substantially influence coalition-building efforts.
Another notable uncertainty is the potential entry of The Haredi Public, a party founded by Beit Shemesh Deputy Mayor Motti Leitner, which seeks to integrate the haredi sector more closely into Israeli society without severing ties to religious communities. The party might also attract former Shas leader Eli Yishai, both of whom have military backgrounds.
Opinion polls indicate that opposition parties may collectively secure six to ten more seats than the current governing coalition. However, Likud is expected to lose about a third of its 32 seats from the previous election, reflecting a partial erosion of Netanyahu’s base. Despite ongoing controversies—including government attempts at judicial reform, the government’s response to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and concerns about the prime minister’s health—approximately two-thirds of previous Likud voters remain loyal to Netanyahu.
Ahead of the elections, internal Likud dynamics are reportedly fraught, with last-minute attempts to influence the party primaries and a smear campaign against Benny Gantz’s chief rival within the party, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu is believed to anticipate a possible electoral deadlock that might trigger another election cycle, similar to the inconclusive polls of 2019 that ultimately extended his tenure.
As Israel approaches the October 28 vote, the political future remains uncertain. While the potential for another round of elections looms, many hope that a stable government will emerge, capable of addressing the country’s deep-seated social and political divisions and steering Israel onto a more stable path.