An expensive winter on the cards as war sees gas stockpiles dwindle to record lows

By the Editorial Team · Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Europe is entering winter with gas storage levels at about half of the usual capacity, driven by reduced shipments from Qatar and the upcoming EU ban on Russian LNG imports. This shortage raises the risk of sharply higher energy prices and supply challenges, especially in the UK, where limited storage and dependence on Norwegian gas could exacerbate market volatility.

Europe is facing a challenging winter as gas supplies remain critically low amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting energy dynamics. Analysts warn that storage levels across the continent have dropped to historically low levels for this time of year, heightening the risk of soaring energy costs.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie reported that European gas reserves are currently just under 50% full, a significant decline from the five-year average of around 90% at this point in the year. The company predicts that by the start of winter, storage may reach only 75% capacity, well below usual levels.

This squeeze on supplies is partly attributed to disruptions in gas shipments from Qatar through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, exacerbated by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. The reduced flow of Qatari gas has limited the availability of additional tankers, further tightening supplies.

The European Union’s planned ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports starting next year is expected to deepen the pressure on the continent’s gas market. This move will likely trigger intensified competition with Asian buyers, particularly Japan and China, for American LNG supplies, driving up prices globally.

In the United Kingdom, the situation is compounded by limited gas storage capacity. The country imports about half its gas, primarily via pipeline from Norway, which produces half of Britain’s domestic gas. However, prices for Norwegian gas typically track global LNG market rates, meaning British prices will rise in line with international trends.

David Lewis, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, noted that the UK market’s reliance on purchasing gas rather than storage means it will often pay a premium compared to other countries. Laura Page, from analysis firm Kpler, highlighted the vulnerability of Britain’s reliance on Norwegian pipelines, stating that any disruption there could lead to further price increases.

Last week, Chris O’Shea, CEO of Centrica—the owner of British Gas—cautioned that low storage levels put the UK at risk of supply shortages this winter.

Despite a recent easing in European gas prices following a pause in US-Iran hostilities, prices remain elevated. European gas recently dropped to about €58 per megawatt hour, but this is still roughly 80% higher than pre-war levels, when prices hovered around €32. Investment bank Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to stay near current levels for the next three months but warned they could surge beyond €100 per megawatt hour next year if Middle East energy exports normalize.

There is some hope that weather conditions may provide relief. The El Niño climate pattern expected to persist through the end of the year could bring a milder winter to Europe, potentially easing demand for heating fuels. Nonetheless, experts caution that absent a mild winter, consumers across the continent face the prospect of a costly and complex energy season.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.