Analyst: Al-Qaeda still strong after flydubai attack

By the Editorial Team · Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Al-Qaeda and its affiliates maintain a strong presence across the Sahara and Arabian Peninsula, with continued propaganda efforts and coordinated operations, including links to the recent flydubai attack involving an Omani national connected to the group. This enduring network, strengthened by alliances like that with Yemen’s Houthi insurgents and the Taliban, poses ongoing regional security threats and complicates efforts to determine whether recent attacks were independently executed or part of broader conspiracies.

Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups continue to maintain a significant presence across the Sahara and Arabian Peninsula regions, according to Yoram Schweitzer, head of the terrorism and low-intensity conflict research field at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies. Schweitzer emphasized that the network remains active, particularly through its ongoing investment in propaganda dissemination.

The renewed attention comes in the wake of Sunday’s flydubai attack, linked by investigative reports to Hamam al-Hammami, an Omani national with established ties to al-Qaeda. Following the incident, al-Hammami reportedly posted a tribute to al-Qaeda’s late leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and a militant involved in a 2009 attack against U.S. forces in Afghanistan. This post was published approximately nine hours after the attack, suggesting it may have been pre-scheduled or that others had access to his social media accounts.

The al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Bayan digital newspaper subsequently issued a call for further attacks mirroring al-Hammami’s actions. The publication underscored an ongoing intent to target aircraft associated with Israelis, Americans, and other perceived enemies, citing both September 11, 2001, and a previously unspecified September 30 incident as precedents.

Schweitzer described al-Qaeda as dispersed but enduring, with its central leadership continuing to inspire various offshoots and operatives worldwide. While the core leadership remains largely based in Afghanistan, its Somali affiliate, al-Shabab, has gained notable territorial influence and serves as a financial conduit for other branches of the network. Furthermore, the consolidation of al-Qaeda’s Yemen and Saudi Arabia branches into al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has bolstered coordination, which now reportedly extends to Yemen’s Houthi insurgents. This alliance has facilitated resource sharing and arms trading among these groups.

The relationship between al-Qaeda and the Taliban remains a key facet of their operational and financial strength, with training and military activity spanning regions including the Sahel, Somalia, and Afghanistan, Schweitzer noted.

Regarding the threat posed specifically to Israel by al-Hammami’s attack, Schweitzer cautioned that definitive conclusions await the full investigation. While he acknowledged the possibility that al-Hammami acted independently, the expert expressed skepticism that the attack was a purely lone-wolf operation, suggesting the existence of broader connections.

“There is a need to determine if others assisted or directed him, beyond the sympathies he expressed toward al-Qaeda,” Schweitzer said. He pointed out that many so-called lone-wolf attackers often have some form of contact, collaboration, or shared radicalization with associates.

Drawing on al-Hammami’s reported admiration for prominent al-Qaeda figures and historical attacks, Schweitzer suggested radicalization was likely influenced by a combination of online propaganda and ideological messaging, including the influence of Osama bin Laden’s declarations, which continue to circulate widely.

“Given his background as a pilot and the available information, it is plausible he could have independently planned the attack, functioning as a ‘Trojan horse,’ but further inquiry is necessary to clarify his connections and the extent of operational support,” Schweitzer added.

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