A new novella by Andreas Fulda, a professor at Nottingham University and noted China expert, envisions a future Chinese military assault on Taiwan, highlighting potential geopolitical and economic ramifications for the West. Set just over a year from now, the fictional narrative depicts a scenario in which China has imposed a naval blockade on the self-governing island before launching a full amphibious invasion. Taiwan's defenses, including rocket artillery and Patriot missile systems, are described as having been destroyed, with critical American listening posts disabled by drone strikes. The story culminates with Taiwan’s president broadcasting an urgent message to both his people and international allies before communications are abruptly severed.

Titled "Wenn China angreift" (If China Attacks), the novella has risen to bestseller status in Germany, largely due to Fulda’s prominence as a commentator on China rather than its literary qualities. Fulda turned to fiction deliberately to convey the imminent threat he perceives to Taiwan and to underscore the strategic consequences that a Chinese takeover would entail for Europe and the broader Western alliance.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army to build the capacity to capture Taiwan by 2027. While an invasion in that year is not guaranteed, analysts warn that Chinese military efforts may accelerate in the near term, increasing tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

Fulda draws parallels to other recent geopolitical fiction, such as Carlo Masala’s simulation of a hypothetical Russian attack on Estonia. His work is framed as a worst-case scenario meant to highlight the stakes involved rather than as a prediction set in stone.

The novella emphasizes Taiwan’s critical role in global technology and trade networks, noting that the island produces advanced microchips essential to multiple industries and controls a maritime corridor responsible for over 20% of worldwide shipping. Analysts estimate that a Chinese blockade alone could inflict economic losses on the order of $2 trillion, roughly equivalent to half of Germany’s GDP, with a full-scale invasion perhaps causing losses five times larger.

While Taiwanese officials in Berlin have generally welcomed the book’s attention to the issue, some express unease about its portrayal of Taiwan facing overwhelming Chinese military strength.

Fulda advocates for stronger diplomatic engagement and increased military support from European countries, including the UK, which has recently contributed to upgrading Taiwan’s submarine capabilities. He criticizes what he terms “pre-emptive obedience” to Beijing among some European governments that prioritize avoiding conflict over deterrence.

“Instead of saying we must do everything to deter the aggressor, we deter ourselves, hoping that this will appease the aggressor,” Fulda said. He warned that such a posture risks complacency in the face of potential aggression and urged Western powers to take a more assertive stance sooner rather than later to prevent a future in which Taiwan falls and authoritarian influence expands.