The government has decided to delay the publication of a major welfare system review until after the forthcoming budget, citing concerns over the cost implications and political timing. The review, led by former Labour health secretary Alan Milburn, focuses on addressing the nearly one million young people classified as not in education, employment, or training (Neets).
Originally scheduled for release at the end of next week, the report will now be postponed to at least next month to avoid detracting from the prime minister’s first significant fiscal announcement. Chancellor John Healey is expected to face pressure to raise taxes due to rising borrowing costs, leaving little financial room for immediate welfare reforms in the budget.
Milburn’s review is anticipated to propose substantial changes to the welfare system, including an expansion of employment support aimed at encouraging young adults to leave benefits and enter the workforce. His interim findings indicated a significant imbalance, with £25 being spent on benefits for every £1 invested in employment support. Among the proposals considered is a plan to end eligibility for a key disability benefit for those aged 16 to 24, replacing it with a new package designed to provide targeted support, although this would require upfront investment.
A government insider noted that releasing the review ahead of the budget could have exposed Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor Healey to criticism, prompting the decision to postpone its publication. Burnham has expressed a desire to respond directly to the report's recommendations upon release, including commissioning further work on their implementation. Healey has previously emphasized a “moral duty” to reduce welfare spending by helping more people into employment.
Two additional reviews are expected to inform Milburn’s recommendations. One, published this week by Professor Peter Fonagy of University College London, examines mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism and ADHD. It highlights the need for immediate support for hundreds of thousands of young people with mild ADHD, anxiety, or depression, suggesting prompt intervention rather than prolonged NHS waiting times. A separate review led by disability minister Sir Stephen Timms, focusing on personal independence payments (PIP)—a disability benefit projected to cost £40 billion by 2030—is also due this autumn. PIP was claimed by over four million people in the past year.
Milburn has described the Neet population—estimated at 981,000 in the three months to June—as “a scar on this country.” He acknowledges that while the proposals will require substantial investment, long-term economic benefits are expected. He has also stated that individuals on benefits but capable of working, particularly those with mild mental health or neurodevelopmental conditions, should have an obligation to engage with employment support programs.
Recent data from the TaxPayers’ Alliance indicates that benefit costs have increased at more than twice the rate of median wages in over half of the constituencies in England and Wales. While median pay rose by around 10 percent since 2023, benefit spending per resident increased by 25 percent in 502 out of 526 constituencies analyzed.
The Department for Work and Pensions confirmed that the Milburn review will be published this autumn as planned and described the work as a critical effort to address the opportunity crisis facing young people. The government said it will respond to the final report in due course.