Andy Burnham’s premiership is entering a more challenging phase as he prepares to face his first Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) in the House of Commons, over six weeks after assuming office. His initial period in office has been marked by a boost in Labour’s polling figures, attributed in part to his personable style and Reform UK’s difficulties. However, the coming weeks will test Burnham’s ability to manage difficult decisions amid heightened parliamentary scrutiny and public expectations.

Since taking office, Burnham has maintained a positive public image, with recent polls showing improved ratings both for Labour and for him personally as the preferred national leader. His tenure so far has been characterised by upbeat rhetoric and a flurry of popular policy announcements, contributing to morale within the party. Yet, critics and analysts caution that this “honeymoon” period coincides with a parliamentary recess and relatively low levels of media scrutiny, which will soon intensify with the return of the Commons.

The prime minister’s upcoming “state-of-the-nation” statement and his debut PMQs are expected to spotlight the contrast between his stated desire for collaborative, problem-solving politics and the traditional adversarial style pursued by his Conservative opponents, notably Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. While Burnham has pledged a more constructive approach to governance, political opponents argue that the reality of parliamentary confrontation may limit this ambition.

Burnham faces several complex policy challenges that require balancing competing interests. A particularly pressing issue involves the controversial early release scheme for prisoners, which has already been delayed from September to October. The government must weigh public outrage over releasing offenders involved in serious crimes against the practical pressures of overcrowded prisons, currently at about 98% capacity. This dilemma underscores the difficult trade-offs inherent in governance.

Another critical test for Burnham will be his approach to the water industry, a sector widely criticised for its environmental and financial record. Public support for renationalising water companies is high—over 80% according to some polls—and such a move would align with Burnham’s emphasis on stronger state control over public utilities. However, officials warn that the financial cost of bringing such companies back into public ownership could reach tens of billions of pounds, a significant burden on the taxpayer and the government’s strained finances.

Fiscal constraints are further highlighted by uncertainty over defence spending. Chancellor John Healey has indicated that the government will not meet the previously pledged target of 3% of GDP on defence by the upcoming October 28 budget, with a possible delay until next year’s spending review. Healey, who earlier resigned from the Starmer administration over disagreements on defence commitments, also faces the challenge of closing budget gaps in defence equipment funding while financing other priorities such as youth unemployment and social care reform.

In addition, the government recently averted a strike by Avanti West Coast train drivers, who serve Burnham’s North of England power base, with a significant pay increase and extra incentives for additional working days. This move, aimed at preserving government functionality and reputation, underscores the delicate balance Burnham must strike between fiscal responsibility and maintaining public sector stability.

Observers remain divided on whether Burnham’s affable style will translate into the firm leadership needed for tough policymaking. Some view his initial popularity as a promising start, while others caution that the prime minister may follow a continuity path that avoids confronting the aggregate scale of the government’s challenges. The forthcoming parliamentary sessions will provide a clearer indication of Burnham’s approach to leadership under pressure.