The Coalition has outlined a new net overseas migration (Nom) target, aiming for 100,000 arrivals annually during the first two years from 2028-29, increasing to 130,000 and then 160,000 by 2032. The announced figures position the Coalition’s policy between the Labor government’s higher migration targets and One Nation’s recent calls for negative net overseas migration over a three-year period.
Despite providing a detailed six-page policy document, Coalition Immigration Minister Angus Taylor's plan notably omits any direct reference to labour market conditions, which experts say are critical to achieving such migration levels. Currently, Australia faces an unemployment rate of approximately 4.6%, a labour force participation rate near 67%, and around 325,000 job vacancies. Many analysts suggest these factors make the proposed Nom targets difficult to meet without changes in the employment landscape.
Critics argue that without a stronger labour market or increased workforce participation, the Coalition risks significant pressure from business groups to raise immigration targets further. Historically, the Coalition has faced challenges resisting such pressures, as evidenced by its earlier decisions to scale back immigration standards following post-COVID-19 border reopening. At the same time, the Coalition had publicly urged the Labor government to increase migration levels in late 2022 to address labour shortages.
The Labor government itself has been criticized for a delayed response to the surge in net overseas migration seen in 2022-23, which some claim was underestimated in terms of its economic and social impacts.
Observers have noted that the Coalition’s reliance on examples from other countries, such as Canada’s recent sharp reduction in Nom—from over 1 million in 2023-24 to under 200,000 projected in 2025-26—may not be directly applicable to Australia’s context. Canada’s migration reductions were driven by a weaker labour market, including an unemployment rate around 7% and declining participation in 2025, leading to steep cuts in student and temporary worker numbers.
Australia’s current relatively tight labour market contrasts with this scenario, suggesting that wielding immigration targets effectively will require careful balancing of economic conditions, labour demand, and political considerations. The Coalition’s new policy, while marking a defined stance ahead of the next federal election, may still face practical challenges in implementation if it does not address these underlying labour market dynamics.