Riyadh — Saudi Arabia appears poised to escalate its conflict with Yemen’s Houthi militia following weeks of attacks targeting Saudi ships, airports, and oil facilities, raising concerns about renewed warfare in the region. Analysts say the move could further complicate the Middle East’s volatile situation, potentially opening a new front in the broader proxy conflict involving Iran, which backs the Houthis.

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen aimed to restore the internationally recognized government ousted by the Houthis in the capital, Sanaa. That effort evolved into a protracted war responsible for widespread death and hardship across Yemen but failed to dislodge the militia. A truce brokered in 2022 led to some diplomatic engagement between the parties, but recent developments indicate those channels may have collapsed.

According to Yemeni and Saudi officials, the Houthis have intensified their military actions, including a recent ballistic missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker and strikes against Saudi-backed Yemeni forces. The group’s spokesman, Yahya Sarie, vowed a forceful response to any escalation, while a Saudi official said the kingdom remains committed to peace but is prepared to defend itself by all means, including airstrikes to support allied Yemeni forces.

Tensions escalated last month after the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Yemen’s main international airport to obstruct an Iranian plane’s landing, which Riyadh denied. The militia subsequently declared a maritime blockade on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea. Since then, intermittent airstrikes carried out by Saudi Arabia have met with missile and drone attacks inside Saudi territory and assaults on shipping routes critical to global energy markets.

Saudi Arabia, as the world’s leading oil exporter, heavily relies on the Red Sea for oil shipments after the Strait of Hormuz’s closure restricted access from the Persian Gulf. The recent Houthi attacks targeting maritime routes have therefore heightened regional instability and global economic concerns.

Within Yemen, fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed government troops surged sharply in recent weeks. The United Nations envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned in a recent briefing that the risk of resuming large-scale conflict is greater now than since the 2022 ceasefire.

The Houthis describe their actions as preemptive measures amid what they allege are Saudi and Yemeni military build-ups preparing for a ground offensive. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi official, stated the group is effectively already at war with Saudi Arabia and threatened destruction of key Saudi infrastructure should hostilities intensify. He further accused Riyadh of maintaining a blockade that restricts essential supplies to Yemen.

Saudi officials reject these claims, asserting that the Houthis seek to evade U.N. weapons inspections and continue receiving illicit support. Diplomatic efforts have included Saudi ambassador Princess Reema bint Bandar’s recent meetings in Washington to alert U.S. lawmakers about the threat posed by the Houthis. Yemeni ambassador Jamila Rajaa also called for increased U.S. military and humanitarian support, including designating the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization.

Analysts note signs of a military buildup on both sides, with Saudi Arabia reportedly coordinating more closely with anti-Houthi Yemeni factions and providing advanced weaponry. Abdullah al-Alimi, a member of Yemen’s presidential leadership council, emphasized the inevitability of a Saudi-backed effort to retake Sanaa.

Despite the preparations, Saudi Arabia faces significant incentives to avoid renewed conflict, including the financial strain and risks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic reform agenda. However, observers suggest the Houthis are unwilling to negotiate and are pressing for political gains while supporting Iran’s regional agenda.

Experts warn that any intensification of fighting threatens to deepen Yemen’s already dire humanitarian crisis. “No party controls where escalation leads,” Hans Grundberg said, underscoring that civilian populations will bear the brunt of renewed warfare.