With Israel’s pivotal election approaching next Tuesday, Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank are watching closely, even though they cannot participate in the vote. The stakes for Palestinians are high, as many view the potential ousting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as critical amid ongoing conflict and hardship.

This election marks the first national vote since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, which triggered a devastating war in Gaza. Palestinians, long resigned to seeing Israeli leadership as a choice between unfavorable options, now express urgent hopes for change. “These elections are existential,” said Nidal Kuhail, a Gaza resident displaced by the war, emphasizing the dire situation faced by many in the enclave.

Netanyahu, whose government is considered the most right-wing since Israel’s founding in 1948, has pledged to block the establishment of a Palestinian state and accelerated the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. His primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, also opposes Palestinian statehood but has committed to reducing settler violence and engaging with efforts to rebuild Gaza under a cease-fire plan linked to the Trump administration.

Despite the candidates’ shared rejection of Palestinian statehood, Palestinians are closely observing the election because of the stark contrast in approaches to settler violence and governance. Many Palestinians acknowledge that a change in leadership may not bring radical improvements but see Netanyahu’s re-election as likely to prolong and worsen current hardships.

In Gaza, Israeli military operations have continued despite a cease-fire reached just over a year ago. According to local health officials, Israeli strikes since then have killed more than 1,400 people, while Israel has expanded its control over parts of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military states it targets Hamas militants and takes measures to protect nearby Israeli communities.

In the West Bank, tensions have intensified amid a surge in settler attacks on Palestinians, particularly during the recent olive harvest season — a critical cultural and economic period for many families. Israeli settlers have established new outposts, some illegal even under Israeli law, and violence including arson and physical assaults has increased. Israeli police reported detentions tied to such incidents, including those involving foreign journalists and diplomats. However, critics say the government’s response has been inadequate, and settler violence has persisted.

Netanyahu has condemned some extremist actions but continues to support settlement growth. In August, he celebrated the construction of over 100 new settlements and promised more, framing it as fulfillment of a longstanding national goal. The Israeli government has also intensified economic pressure on the Palestinian Authority by restricting Palestinian employment in Israel and withholding tax revenues, citing concerns over terrorism financing—allegations denied by Palestinian officials.

Eisenkot, while broadly supporting settlements, has vowed to dismantle those established in areas designated for Palestinian administrative control under the Oslo Accords. Analysts note that his allies plan to engage more deeply in efforts to weaken Hamas, though policies toward Gaza are widely expected to remain restrictive.

Palestinians in the West Bank have suffered from recent settler violence. Haimr Abdel Jaber, an American citizen living near Ramallah, was hospitalized with a head injury after an attack by masked settlers while harvesting olives. He and others hope for a government that can better protect Palestinian communities, though skepticism remains about meaningful change under any Israeli administration.

In Gaza, many Palestinians continue to live amid rubble and displacement. Jaser Abu Mousa, a political analyst, described life as effectively stalled as residents await the election outcome. Some, like Saed Abu Aita, who was wounded during the conflict and lost close family members, express cautious hope that Netanyahu’s departure might ease daily hardships, improve humanitarian access, and potentially allow displaced families to return home.

While uncertainty surrounds how significant policy shifts might be regardless of the election result, Palestinians widely agree that four more years under Netanyahu’s leadership would likely perpetuate the current cycles of violence and deprivation.