Asia’s coal imports set to rebound as prices undercut LNG

By the Editorial Team · Monday, October 12, 2026

Global thermal coal exports are expected to decline again in 2026 but may see a late-year increase as lower coal prices compared to liquefied natural gas prompt Asian countries to boost coal shipments ahead of winter. This seasonal rebound, primarily benefiting Indonesia and Australia, highlights coal's ongoing competitiveness in Asia's energy market despite efforts to shift toward cleaner fuels.

Global thermal coal exports are projected to decline for the second consecutive year in 2026, but a widening price gap with liquefied natural gas (LNG) may trigger a late-year rebound in shipments to Asia as countries prepare for winter energy demand.

Australian benchmark thermal coal prices have fallen to levels roughly 80% lower than LNG prices delivered to the region, reinforcing coal’s competitive advantage for power generation. Newcastle thermal coal is currently trading near $143 per metric ton, or about $5.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), compared with approximately $25 per MMBtu for LNG delivered to Asia, according to data from LSEG.

Coal supplied from Indonesia is generally at least $1 per MMBtu cheaper than Australian coal, providing further incentive for Asian utilities to increase coal use over gas when replenishing fuel inventories ahead of the peak heating season.

China, Japan, and South Korea, which are among the largest coal consumers in Asia, imported nearly 122 million tonnes of coal in the July-September quarter of 2026, based on figures from Kpler. Historically, these countries’ combined coal imports rise during the fourth quarter—when winter heating demand peaks—averaging around 143 million tonnes in the comparable period for 2024 and 2025. A similar seasonal increase this year could add roughly 20 million tonnes to fourth-quarter imports.

Such an uptick in demand would primarily benefit major coal exporters Indonesia and Australia. Indonesia’s coal shipments reached just under 107 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, marking its lowest third-quarter volume since 2021. Meanwhile, Australia exported about 52 million tonnes during this quarter, slightly below the roughly 55 million tonnes typically shipped in the final quarter of recent years.

If seasonal import patterns repeat, combined exports from Indonesia and Australia could rise by nearly 30 million tonnes in the fourth quarter relative to third-quarter levels.

The anticipated fourth-quarter rebound underscores the significant role that price dynamics continue to play in Asia’s energy mix, even as regional governments push to accelerate their transition away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy sources.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.