Australia’s national security landscape faces growing challenges amid warnings from key officials about resource allocation and evolving threats. Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director-General Mike Burgess has cautioned that the current terrorism threat rating system inadequately reflects the complexity and volatility of the security environment, urging greater awareness of emerging risks.

In a recent briefing, Burgess emphasised that while the national terrorism threat level remains at “probable,” this classification does not fully capture the increased likelihood of politically motivated violence. The higher rating of “expected” requires specific intelligence on imminent attacks, which has not yet been obtained. Nonetheless, he noted a deteriorating security environment characterised by rising threats that outpace traditional threat assessments.

Burgess’ remarks coincide with concerns raised by Royal Commissioner Virginia Bell in the interim report of the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion. The commission was established following a terrorist attack at Bondi Beach in December 2023. Bell highlighted a troubling trend: despite some growth in total resourcing since 2020, the relative funding dedicated to counter-terrorism across Australia’s National Intelligence Community has significantly decreased between 2020 and 2025. She questioned the current national security apparatus’s preparedness for a major terrorist incident and underscored the importance of heeding repeated warnings from security agencies.

The evolving threat landscape has shifted over recent years. In 2022, Burgess identified espionage and foreign interference as Australia’s primary security concerns, overtaking terrorism. By August 2024, the terrorism threat level was raised to “probable,” reflecting a broader spectrum of risks beyond espionage. In 2025, Burgess warned of the country entering an era marked by strategic surprise and fragility, with the threat environment becoming increasingly dynamic and degraded. His latest update affirms that this period has already begun.

Burgess pointed to the impact of great-power competition on global and regional stability, noting that longstanding alliances and international norms are under strain. He warned that social cohesion, economic stability, and supply chain reliability are being tested by intersecting pressures, including state-sponsored aggression and domestic unrest. He singled out the Jewish community as particularly vulnerable, highlighting that antisemitism now arises from a diverse set of sources and manifests across various extremist groups, which often share anti-Jewish sentiment as a common factor.

In addition to ongoing regional tensions, Burgess noted that despite a ceasefire in the Middle East, Iran continues to view Australia as a potential target. He flagged the possibility of Iran-aligned groups expanding their operations into Australia, mirroring recent campaigns conducted in Europe. Traditional terrorist organisations such as Islamic State and al-Qa’ida and their affiliates are also regaining strength, maintaining Western interests as targets. Compounding these threats are state-sponsored acts of coercion, sabotage, espionage, and efforts aimed at undermining strategic alliances like the AUKUS partnership.

While the number of ASIO officers assigned to counter-terrorism has doubled since 2005, Burgess acknowledged the increasing complexity and difficulty facing security agencies. The royal commission’s interim findings about diminished funding since 2020 raise urgent questions about whether agencies have the necessary resources and interagency cooperation to effectively counter accelerating threats.

The ongoing inquiry will need to address these critical issues to ensure Australia’s national security framework remains robust and responsive amid rapidly shifting challenges.