Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August, marking its highest level since the onset of the pandemic, as workers increasingly seek additional employment to offset rising living costs and looming mortgage rate hikes, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The unemployment figure climbed from 4.5% in July, defying economists' expectations that the rate would hold steady. Despite the uptick, economists do not anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will pause its tightening cycle. The central bank is widely expected to raise the cash rate next week from 4.35% to 4.6%, the highest level in nearly 15 years, as inflation remains above the target at 3.5%.
Recent statements from RBA officials underscore concerns that inflation is not easing as hoped, particularly amid global pressures such as rising fuel prices and instability linked to the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Financial markets are also weighing the possibility of an additional rate increase later in the year, possibly on Melbourne Cup day.
The latest labour force data showed a complex picture: employment rose by 39,000 in August, mainly driven by growth in part-time positions, while full-time jobs declined by 6,000. The rise in unemployment occurred alongside a surge in labour force participation, suggesting more Australians are actively seeking work amid economic uncertainty.
Brendan Rynne, chief economist at KPMG, described the data as a confirmation of a weakening economy. He noted that households are responding to the twin pressures of inflation and anticipated mortgage increases by increasing their participation rate, which neared a near-record high of 67.2%. “This suggests households are scrambling to find more income to help cover their rising day-to-day expenses and future increases in mortgage payments,” Rynne said.
Supporting this trend, ABS figures released earlier in the month revealed that over one million Australians now hold more than one job—an all-time high. This segment of the workforce constitutes roughly 6.9% of employed people, about one percentage point higher than levels before inflation surged in 2022.
Westpac economist Ryan Wells highlighted the tension between a softening economy and robust labour participation. He indicated that while subdued economic growth and modest job creation typically dampen the labour market, rising living costs and interest rate pressures are encouraging more individuals to seek additional work, effectively counterbalancing the weaker economic signals.
As Australians contend with sustained inflation and prospective interest rate increases, the labour market appears to be adjusting with higher participation, more part-time work, and a growing share of multiple jobholders. This underscores ongoing challenges for household budgets and the broader economic outlook in the months ahead.
