Autumn weather outlook and rising El Niño impacts

By the Editorial Team · Friday, September 11, 2026

The UK Met Office forecasts a warmer and wetter autumn ahead, influenced by rising local sea temperatures and a powerful El Niño event in the Pacific. This El Niño, already driving extreme weather globally, could lead to increased storms and rainfall in the UK, though exact impacts remain uncertain.

Autumn in the United Kingdom has been marked by variable weather, alternating between cooler, wet conditions and warmer, sunnier spells. The Met Office’s seasonal forecast indicates that the remainder of autumn is likely to be warmer than average, with a possibility of increased rainfall and stronger winds. While predicting autumn weather is typically challenging due to its volatility, forecasters express a somewhat higher level of confidence in this outlook compared to previous years.

The shifting patterns are attributed in part to the ongoing warming of the UK’s climate amid rising global temperatures. Additionally, elevated sea surface temperatures around the region contribute to the likelihood of warmer and wetter weather conditions as the season progresses.

A significant factor influencing global and regional weather is a developing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean, described by Met Office expert Adam Scaife as “unprecedented” in its intensity. This powerful El Niño is already affecting weather patterns worldwide. In the Pacific, it has led to an increased frequency of hurricanes, while strong upper-level winds extending from the Pacific have suppressed hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin.

The impacts of El Niño are already being observed in several countries. Indonesia is experiencing drought conditions that have sparked wildfires, while countries along South America’s Pacific coast, including Ecuador and Peru, are preparing for heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides. Although these events are geographically distant from the UK, the effects of El Niño can propagate through atmospheric circulation patterns, potentially influencing weather in northwest Europe.

Historical events, such as the strong El Niño during the winter of 2015–16, illustrate the potential for such conditions to bring a succession of storms, significant rainfall, and flooding to the UK and surrounding regions. There is also speculation that the current El Niño could result in a colder end to the winter season. However, meteorologists caution that forecasts about El Niño’s long-range impacts remain uncertain, with outcomes subject to variability.

Overall, while the UK can expect a somewhat warmer and wetter autumn influenced by global climate trends and the unfolding El Niño, the precise effects on seasonal weather will become clearer as the season advances.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.