The federal Green Party of Canada faces a critical juncture as it searches for new leadership amid a steep decline in electoral support. Following the departure of co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault, the party’s prospects appear uncertain, especially as the New Democratic Party’s Avi Lewis gains attention for his environmental advocacy.

The Greens’ recent electoral performance underscores their challenges. In the 2021 federal election, under former leader Annamie Paul, the party fielded 252 candidates and garnered 2.3 percent of the popular vote, securing one seat in Ontario through Mike Morrice’s victory in Kitchener. By 2025, despite May’s return to leadership in an attempt to stabilize the party, Green candidates decreased to 232, vote share dropped to 1.2 percent, and Morrice lost his seat. Few candidates managed to attract more than a few hundred votes, and not even May herself received more than 13 percent of the party’s national tally—marking the party’s lowest historical support.

This decline has sparked speculation about the party’s future viability. The leadership contest demands fluency in both official languages, with an exemption for Indigenous candidates. However, with limited electoral traction in Quebec, this requirement may further narrow the field. Internal discussions indicate that Elizabeth May remains influential in determining her successor, having introduced the current co-leadership model and contemplated stepping down earlier to facilitate Pedneault’s leadership.

Compounding the Greens’ struggles is the shifting political landscape on climate and environmental issues. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has paused some climate initiatives, creating a more challenging environment for environmental advocacy within mainstream politics. Meanwhile, the NDP has positioned itself as a dominant “carbon-neutral” left-wing alternative. Lewis, who has been integral to progressive climate policy through the 2015 LEAP Manifesto, has cultivated a reputation for rigorous environmental principles, sometimes putting him at odds with more resource-dependent provincial NDP factions.

Lewis’s approach contrasts with May’s pragmatism; while she aims for achievable policy gains, he is more ideologically driven and focused on systemic change, including strong actions against the tar sands industry. Some observers argue this ideological overlap and Lewis’s profile could undercut the Green Party’s distinctiveness, potentially siphoning away its base.

Commentators have suggested that Lewis could have been a natural fit for the Green leadership, given his policy background and family ties to Canadian social democracy. Yet, questions remain whether Lewis’s ambitions lie in the NDP fold or elsewhere, and whether he can revitalize the party he leads. Conversely, others see the possibility that a moderate Conservative leader might reshape the political dynamics, offering a pathway for the NDP to regain momentum without dramatic leadership changes.

As the Greens approach their leadership transition, the party faces the risk of further marginalization or even political obsolescence. Lewis’s environmental leadership and the NDP’s evolving strategy highlight the complex interplay among progressive forces in Canadian politics, with the Green Party’s future hanging in the balance.