The Bab Al-Mandab Strait has become a focal point of escalating tensions as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militia imposed a blockade, intensifying risks to global shipping and energy supplies. The move follows a series of recent attacks by the Houthis on vessels transiting the crucial maritime corridor connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

The blockade, reportedly carried out at Iran’s urging, targets Saudi Arabia’s oil exports, aiming to tighten the pressure already exerted by Tehran through disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. By Thursday, oil prices surged to $100 per barrel for the first time since May.

The Saudi-led Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen condemned the Houthis’ action as a “reckless, cowardly” act that threatens a vital international shipping lane. It vowed a strong and proportionate military retaliation against the militia, emphasizing that the attack was part of a series of hostile maritime actions.

The Houthis warned in communications to global shipping companies that any vessels traveling to or from Saudi ports could face sanctions or be targeted “within operational reach,” urging companies to exercise extreme caution. This warning contributed to a notable shift in shipping patterns, with multiple vessels turning around or rerouting away from the Red Sea. For instance, the tanker Rodos, en route from the Saudi crude terminal of Al-Muajjiz, reversed course, as did a vehicle carrier traveling from China to Saudi Arabia.

Maritime risk analysts regard the Houthi blockade as a credible escalation rather than mere rhetoric. In response, the European Union’s naval force in the region, Operation ASPIDES, advised merchant vessels associated with Israeli, US, or Saudi interests to avoid transiting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the threat subsides.

Late Wednesday, the Houthis attacked the Saudi-owned oil-products tanker Encelia, causing a fire. Although Houthi claims of a second hit remain unconfirmed, the incident underscored the growing danger to commercial shipping.

Despite protective patrols, including the deployment of the Italian frigate Bergamini, attacks on vessels have persisted. US President Donald Trump warned Iran that the United States would hold it accountable for the actions of its proxy forces in Yemen, pledging major military repercussions should the assaults continue.

On the defensive front, Saudi air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles and a drone targeting refineries in Yanbu. However, coalition naval presence has had limited success in curbing maritime disruptions, with attacks continuing at an average rate of nearly 10 monthly since late 2023, including the sinking and damaging of several ships.

The disruption of shipping through the Bab Al-Mandab, a key link for nearly 90 percent of container traffic responsible for up to 15 percent of global maritime trade, compels many operators to route around Africa. This alternative adds about 11,000 nautical miles and an additional 1-2 weeks in transit, along with approximately $1 million in fuel costs per voyage. Nevertheless, increased war risk insurance, crew bonuses, and Suez Canal fees often make this extended detour economically viable.

Saudi Arabia has partially mitigated the Strait of Hormuz blockade by utilizing its East-West Pipeline to transport oil from eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Exports from Yanbu have risen markedly since March 2026, regularly exceeding 4 million barrels per day, predominantly headed to Asian markets via the Bab Al-Mandab.

While rerouting tankers northward through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean is feasible for shipments bound to Europe or the US, it poses challenges for Asian deliveries. The northern route significantly lengthens voyage times, increases costs, and creates new logistical bottlenecks, particularly as the canal’s depth restricts the passage of very large crude carriers (VLCCs). To address these limitations, Egypt operates the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline, which facilitates oil transit from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

The current escalation and blockade in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait underscore the fragility of global maritime trade lanes amid regional conflicts, with significant implications for energy markets and international shipping security.