As the United States approaches the 2024 midterm elections, economic concerns remain a significant factor shaping voter sentiment, despite increasing political polarization. Recent polling suggests that dissatisfaction with the economy is rising even among staunch Republican supporters of former President Donald Trump, complicating his efforts to rally his base ahead of the vote.

In September 2024, near the end of President Joe Biden’s term, 65% of Republicans believed the economy was deteriorating. By early 2025, following the introduction of Trump’s so-called "liberation day" tariffs and the launch of a trade war with various countries, that figure had temporarily dropped to 33%. However, no clear improvement in key economic indicators accompanied this shift. Inflation remained relatively stable, with annual consumer price inflation moving slightly from 2.4% to 2.3%, while unemployment edged up from 4.1% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, Democrats’ economic outlook grew more pessimistic, with 73% viewing conditions as worsening, up sharply from 28% months earlier.

Despite ongoing attempts by Trump and his allies to frame the economic situation positively, recent data from the Harris poll indicates that Republican optimism is waning. A September 2025 survey revealed that 38% of Republicans now view the economy as worsening, an increase from 29% a year prior. This shift is particularly pronounced among traditional Republican demographics such as rural residents and white voters. Among rural Americans, 64% perceive the economy as declining, up from 58% during the final months of the Biden administration, while 61% of white Americans share this view, compared to 48% previously. Men’s economic pessimism also rose from 46% to 52% over this period.

Several factors underlie the growing unease, especially among rural communities that have historically supported Republicans. These groups have been hit hard by Trump’s trade policies, including restricted access to Chinese markets, rising costs for diesel and fertilizer linked to geopolitical tensions, and labor disruptions following immigration enforcement measures. Further discontent stems from Trump’s effort to reduce tariffs on imported meat to tame domestic beef prices, actions that some constituents view unfavorably.

Political scientists note that while economic conditions have traditionally influenced U.S. elections, this relationship has become increasingly mediated by partisan identity in recent decades. A study from Stanford and New York University highlights a widening partisan gap in economic perceptions—escalating from roughly 20 percentage points during President George W. Bush’s administration to as much as 73 percentage points under Trump’s first term.

This polarization extends beyond voter attitudes to policymaking behavior. Researchers from Bucknell University and Texas A&M University argue that when voters are unlikely to cross party lines based on economic performance, elected officials may prioritize policies that benefit their political base or themselves personally rather than promoting broad economic prosperity. This dynamic appears to reflect Trump’s approach, including his emphasis on cultural issues and targeting of groups unpopular with his supporters, such as immigrants.

However, these strategies seem insufficient to overcome growing economic dissatisfaction. Overall, 58% of U.S. voters currently believe the economy is worsening—a 10-point increase since Biden’s last poll—signaling that economic challenges may dampen Trump’s prospects in the upcoming midterms, even among his most loyal followers.