Conservative Party members are expressing renewed optimism ahead of the summer political season, buoyed by the leadership of Kemi Badenoch despite their party’s continued position behind opponents in recent polls.

Currently polling between 18 and 20 percent, the Conservatives remain behind Reform UK, which holds a lead in the mid-20s, and Labour, which is preparing for a possible rise following the appointment of Andy Burnham, expected to become prime minister on July 20. Nevertheless, senior Conservative figures described a notable shift in morale within Westminster circles.

“We are very chipper,” said a Shadow Cabinet member, citing Badenoch’s leadership as a key factor in lifting the party’s spirits. Several insiders attributed the improved atmosphere to a reduction in internal factional disputes after Robert Jenrick’s departure from the party earlier this year. Jenrick had been dismissed by Badenoch after plans to defect to Reform UK were uncovered. This move was widely welcomed among Conservatives, who saw his exit as removing a source of division.

Within the Shadow Cabinet, Badenoch has been praised for fostering collegiality and inclusive decision-making. Members noted her ability to engage her team and encourage open discussion. Her confrontational style on opposition benches has also been credited with energizing the party’s base. In recent engagements, Badenoch has taken an assertive stance against Labour figures, including a sharp critique of Chancellor Rachel Reeves during the Budget debate and a pointed rebuke of Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson regarding VAT on private school fees.

Her willingness to address contentious issues has resonated with some voters. Badenoch has drawn attention to the perceived unfairness of student loan interest charges and expressed support for restricting social media use among children under 16—positions that have helped differentiate her from Labour leader Keir Starmer. She also demonstrated a more measured approach in response to the murder of Henry Nowak, focusing on calm community relations and race-neutral policing.

Despite these positive indicators, polling data reveal that the wider Conservative Party continues to struggle with public perception. The latest Opinium survey showed the party trailing on measures of connection with ordinary people and readiness to govern, with scores at -31 and -26 respectively. However, Conservatives still lead Labour on attributes such as party unity, clarity of purpose, and knowing what they stand for.

Some MPs view Badenoch’s personal appeal as a potential foundation for rebuilding Conservative support but caution that broader party renewal is necessary. They emphasize the need for a generational shift and an eventual reshuffle to introduce new talent and broaden the party’s public image.

Meanwhile, the broader centre-right landscape appears fragmented. Reform UK, which won significant council seats in May, faces competition from Restore Britain, whose vote share has chipped away at Reform’s support. Some Conservatives believe Nigel Farage’s strategy of recruiting former Tory figures like Jenrick has not delivered the expected gains.

Badenoch’s rising profile has also benefited from weaknesses in Labour’s messaging and leadership. Confidence in her performance at Prime Minister’s Questions has been bolstered by advice from former Conservative leaders, including Boris Johnson, David Cameron, and Iain Duncan Smith.

The Conservatives remain cautious about the timing of a general election. While some fear a poll bounce for Burnham could prompt Labour to call one in the coming months, others suspect Burnham may hesitate to risk his party’s current parliamentary majority. Across the party, there is consensus that the Conservatives are not yet prepared for a decisive electoral contest.

Nonetheless, optimism endures among Conservative ranks, driven by Badenoch’s perceived momentum and the belief that the party may be turning a corner after a challenging period. As one Tory MP observed, “Politics is all about momentum, and since Boris [Johnson] started to fall apart, we’ve been losing momentum. Even though we’re at a low point, we have some momentum about us.”