Chinese automakers are rapidly expanding their presence in the global electric vehicle (EV) market, prompting international financial institutions to revise their export projections upward. Goldman Sachs, among others, has highlighted the strong overseas demand as a key factor offsetting waning domestic sales for companies like BYD and Xpeng.

According to a report released by Goldman Sachs on Thursday, exports of new-energy vehicles from China surged 63 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The investment bank has adjusted its forecasts, now anticipating that Chinese passenger vehicle exports will increase between 6 and 11 percent annually from 2026 through 2030. This outlook projects shipments rising from 7.8 million units this year to around 10 million units by 2030. Excluding sales within mainland China and the United States, Chinese-branded vehicles are expected to make up 17 percent of the global auto market by 2030.

These projections align with similar forecasts from JPMorgan, which predicted a 150 percent sales increase for Chinese cars in Western Europe through 2028. The bank expects the region to see Chinese vehicle deliveries reach approximately 2.5 million units annually, securing a 20 percent market share in countries including Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom. Chinese manufacturers sold about 1 million vehicles in Western Europe in 2025.

The growth abroad is largely driven by rising consumer interest in EVs and innovation, bolstered by strong government support for new-energy vehicle development. Automakers are accelerating their global expansion by introducing models equipped with advanced technologies such as preliminary autonomous driving features, digital cockpits, expansive display panels, and luxury add-ons like onboard refrigerators.

Goldman Sachs reported that of the estimated 7.8 million vehicles expected to be exported in 2026, 3.81 million will be pure electric or plug-in hybrids, representing a 72.4 percent increase over 2025 volumes. Leading the charge are BYD, the largest global electric carmaker headquartered in Shenzhen, along with Xpeng, partially owned by Volkswagen, and Stellantis-backed Leapmotor. These firms have strengthened their international footprint through extensive export pipelines, localized sales efforts, and overseas production facilities.

BYD has notably risen in global rankings, entering the top three in car sales in eight of the 18 markets tracked by Goldman Sachs, up from six the previous year. Leapmotor has also gained significant traction, securing the third spot among EV brands in the Italian market.

Despite European Union tariffs—30 percent on pure electric vehicles and 10 percent on hybrids—as well as shipping expenses and greater incentives required for local dealerships, Chinese companies have maintained healthy profit margins. JPMorgan’s Asia-Pacific auto research head, Nick Lai, indicated that the average net profit per vehicle for Chinese automakers is about 5,000 yuan (HK$5,770) domestically, with overseas margins potentially quadrupling to around 20,000 yuan.

Conversely, domestic sales in China are expected to face challenges. Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline of up to 8 percent in car sales within the mainland from 2026 to 2030, attributing this to softening demand at home. Nonetheless, the growing global appetite for Chinese electric vehicles appears to position the country’s automotive sector for sustained growth on the international stage.