Baroness Casey Criticizes Disability Survey as She Leads Social Care Review

By the Editorial Team · Thursday, July 30, 2026

Baroness Casey, leading a government review of social care, questioned the accuracy of the Department for Work and Pensions’ data showing 16.8 million people self-identify as disabled and called for a reassessment of welfare priorities. This review comes amid rising disability benefit costs and ongoing discussions about tightening eligibility criteria, with an interim report due later this year and full recommendations by 2028.

Baroness Casey of Blackstock, who is chairing a government review of social care, has raised questions about the accuracy and implications of official disability figures released by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). Speaking as she launched a consultation called the “Big Conversation on Care,” Casey highlighted the need for more rigorous debate on the future of welfare support in the UK.

According to the latest Family Resources Survey by the DWP for the 2023-24 financial year, approximately 16.8 million people—equivalent to one in four Britons—self-identified as disabled. The survey uses a definition consistent with the Equality Act 2010, considering individuals disabled if they report having a physical or mental health condition lasting or expected to last more than 12 months that substantially limits their ability to carry out daily activities. However, Casey expressed skepticism about the broad scope of this figure, noting that she herself, while not disabled, would technically meet the survey’s criteria based on her medical records.

The Family Resources Survey relies on voluntary, self-reported data, and the DWP emphasized that the 16.8 million figure does not correspond to eligibility for disability-related benefits. Instead, benefit qualification requires meeting stricter criteria.

Currently, over four million people receive the Personal Independence Payment (PIP), a non-means-tested disability benefit designed to help cover additional costs related to disability. Spending on PIP is projected to increase sharply, from £26 billion in 2024-25 to £45 billion by 2031. Similarly, the number of people claiming incapacity benefits is expected to rise from 3.4 million to 4 million over the same period, while total disability benefit claimants may grow from 6.5 million to 8.8 million.

The overall welfare budget for 2025-26 is forecast to exceed £320 billion, accounting for nearly a quarter of total government spending, with pensions representing over half of that outlay. In this context, some government officials view working-age health and disability benefits as key areas for potential cost reduction.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has indicated he would retain the state pension triple lock but is open to tightening access to health and disability benefits. He has called for more stringent claiming processes to help reduce welfare spending. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently echoed this position, emphasizing the importance of enabling those who can work to do so with appropriate support, particularly for mental health conditions.

Baroness Casey acknowledged the challenges faced by many individuals with substantial disabilities, stating that some currently receive insufficient support. At the same time, she urged the public to reconsider how the welfare system should prioritize care. “Who should we be looking after, and how?” she asked, describing the question as fundamental to the future of the British welfare state.

The DWP reiterated that the 16.8 million figure reflects self-reported disability under the Equality Act and is not the same measure used to determine eligibility for government benefits. The social care review chaired by Baroness Casey is expected to produce an interim report later this year, with full recommendations anticipated by 2028.

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